The high levels of inflation that have been recorded in recent months have become one of the main factors of uncertainty and, in Mexico, it may not yet have reached its peak, according to some members of the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives ( IMEF).
In a press video conference, Alejandro Hernández Bringas, president of the IMEF, pointed out that global inflation has turned on the spotlights, for which central banks have had to tighten their monetary policy, as happened last week with the Federal Reserve ( Fed) of the United States.
“Inflation has shown an unexpected rebound in Mexico and in various parts of the world, propitiating a marked change in expectations for monetary policy and is one of the main factors of uncertainty about the outlook, since, if it does not slow down relatively speed will motivate a greater hardness on the part of the central banks”, Hernández Bringas told the media.
In this sense, he pointed out that in Mexico inflation is one of the main threats to the economy, and highlighted the increases of more than 10% that the food and beverage category has presented, whose high prices affect, to a greater extent, those with lower income in the country.
Mario Correa, president of the National Committee for Economic Studies of the IMEF, pointed out that the peak in the level of inflation in Mexico has probably not yet been reached, so it is too early to “sing victory.”
“In the estimate that I have as an independent analyst, I have that the peak will occur until the month of August. In the first fortnight of June we are going to see if there is any important effect on the increase in public transport in CDMX, so I think that we still cannot claim victory over the fact that we have already reached the peak of inflation in Mexico and I would say that neither in the United States. United,” he said.
changes in outlook
In June, the IMEF revised slightly upwards the growth estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while for inflation it maintained the projection of the previous month, unlike what has happened in recent weeks with other organizations that have modified the decline in GDP and increased their expectations about prices.
In this way, they expect the Mexican economy to grow at a rate of 1.8% this year, from 1.7% that they estimated before, while for inflation they maintain the level at 6.8 percent.
Regarding the interest rate of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) for the end of this year, the IMEF projected a level of 8.75% against the previous expectation of 8.50 percent. This is due to the 75 basis point hike in the Fed rate that occurred last week, a movement that is also expected this week at the Banxico meeting.
“It will be of special interest that some member of the Governing Board might think that an increase greater than 75 base points is necessary and, also, it will be interesting to know if some members might think that increases in levels of 75 points are no longer enough. . My impression is that they are going to go parallel to the Fed”, said the president of the IMEF.