In France, a surge in gas prices driven by the global economic recovery

The months go by and the trend is confirmed, to the chagrin of users. From 1er October, regulated gas sales tariffs (TRV) will be further increased in France. Not least: + 12.6%, all taxes included (TTC), on average. Never have such percentages been recorded since 2013, the year since which these scales have been revised on a monthly rather than quarterly basis. At 1er September, it was “only” + 7.9% including tax.

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As much as the recession due to the Covid-19 epidemic had caused gas prices to fall in 2020, the economic recovery has strongly recovered them. Constant in 2021 – except in April – the increase in the regulated tariff hits around 3 million households. This tariff is set to disappear in July 2023 to make room for market offers; these already concern the other two thirds of households, most of them at a fixed price for a determined period.

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For a household heated by gas, the evolution of the TRV of the supplier Engie (ex-GDF) is not without damage: in October, it will correspond to an invoice of 1,482 euros per year. Or a formidable leap: + 29% since January 2019 and + 44% since January 2020, all taxes included.

No stock shortage in sight

France imports almost all of the natural gas it consumes. “It is therefore exposed, like the rest of Europe, to variations in prices on European and world markets”, recalled the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE), Monday, September 27. The French independent administrative authority calculates the tariffs according to various costs, in particular those of supply.

The increase in the regulated tariff, set to disappear completely in July 2023, affects around 3 million households

This rise in prices is due to the resumption of activity – and, therefore, of demand in Asia, which is attracting LNG carrier cargoes. Imports come in part from gas pipelines from Russia, which the International Energy Agency has asked to deliver more fuel. Another element: the increase in the price of European carbon dioxide emission allowances, these “polluting permits” paid by large industrialists. a “Speculative aspect around commodities” also comes into account, according to Anne-Sophie Alsif, chief economist at the Office of Economic Information and Forecasting, a consulting firm.

France, however, is in principle safe from a winter supply disruption. Unlike other European countries, “If we look at the state of gas stocks in France, they are quite good”, underlines Julien Teddé, Managing Director of Opéra Energie, specializing in electricity and gas brokerage.

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