The Halloween mood on the street at Baruch Labunski in Toronto has been haunting for the past two years, and not in the form of witches and goblins.
“During the pandemic no one put up decorations and there were hardly any children,” he said.
This year, pumpkins have been sitting on your neighbors’ doorsteps since early September, and your child has already picked out a costume.
“It looks like we’re getting back to normal,” he said. “I think Halloween is going to be bigger than ever.”
After two years of COVID-19 restrictions putting the brakes on Halloween, Canadians are expected to ramp up the celebrations this year.
But the rising cost of goods and ongoing supply chain problems could hamper demand for costumes, candy and decorations.
New research from the Retail Council of Canada suggests that 86 per cent of Canadians will spend the same or more on Halloween this year compared to last year, with many making purchases a month in advance.
Consumers also seem willing to open their wallets for a new hot costume or candy, with more than half of Canadians saying they plan to spend more than $50.
“I think Halloween will be in high demand,” said Tandy Thomas, an associate professor at Queen’s University’s Smith School of Business.
“Halloween spending will likely mimic the strong consumer behavior we’ve seen in travel and restaurants in recent months. There are plenty of kids who haven’t gone trick-or-treating for two years who will be itching to get out again.” there.”
That said, Canadians feeling the pinch of skyrocketing inflation can give fewer treats, turn off porch lights early, or opt out of celebrating Halloween altogether.
Shoppers may also feel pressured by so-called reduced inflation in the candy aisle: Manufacturers put fewer chips in a bag or candy in a box but still charge the same price.
“More dark houses could be seen if people are concerned about costs and decide not to participate,” said retail analyst Bruce Winder.
Potential strong demand coupled with current supply chain constraints could also lead to some empty shelves, especially in late October.
Part of the problem manufacturers and retailers face is that the forecasts are unreliable, Winder said.
“The hardest part of supply chains is predicting demand,” he said. “But that’s especially hard to do right now because every season is a new way for consumers to behave as they navigate through the pandemic.”
Depending on how demand develops, the potential shortage could be particularly acute in the candy aisle.
“I think there could be a supply shortage,” Thomas said. “It’s going to be more difficult for retailers to source inventory, which means there probably won’t be as much excess or deep discounts on November 1.”
Also, running to a pharmacy on Halloween night to replenish supplies might not be an option for people who underestimate how much candy they’ll get, he said.
Hershey Co. CEO Michele Buck recently said “capacity is limited” in some parts of the company’s portfolio.
The maker of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups has prioritized on-shelf availability of its everyday products to meet growing demand in that area, but has had to limit seasonal items, he said.
“We had the opportunity to deliver more Halloween, but we couldn’t deliver that,” Buck said during an earnings call in July.
Hershey spokeswoman Allison Kleinfelter said that despite capacity constraints, the company has made more Halloween candy this year than it did last year.
But she still recommends buying early.
“Over the last two years, consumers have been buying seasonal candy sooner than they have in the past,” Kleinfelter said. “This means that often a week before the actual holidays, seasonal packages can be harder to come by.”
Retail Council of Canada spokeswoman Michelle Wasylyshen said the best advice for consumers is to shop early.
“We’ve heard from some retailers that they’ve had a lot of supply chain challenges with this year’s Halloween products because suppliers weren’t able to provide the requested quantities,” he said.
“This means there could be fewer quantities available for several key Halloween products.”
Labunski in Toronto said he’s not worried about shortages despite an expected Halloween spike.
“I think people will go all out and therefore retailers may be left without some of the popular stuff,” he said. “But I can buy something else.”
Spirit Halloween, one of the largest costume retailers, said it has a full assortment of costumes, decorations and accessories.
“We work all year to develop must-have looks, and 2022 is shaping up to be an incredible year,” Steven Silverstein, CEO of Spirit Halloween, said in a statement.
When it comes to costumes and decorations, inflation-conscious Canadians might find creative ways to cut costs this year.
“We’ll see some bargain hunting,” Thomas said. “People can sew a costume by hand or look for a used costume.”
People will also cut back on less essential items, Winder said.
“They can reuse decorations from previous years or buy them at Dollarama to save money.”
This report from The Canadian Press was first published on October 2, 2022.