How many days does Vladimir Putin have left? Will economic sanctions be his death sentence? Will everything return to normal when he’s gone? These are the unknowns that are most often associated with the hope of the moment.
The Russian ruble, after collapsing with the announcement of the first bloc of economic sanctions, now appears to be recovering its pre-war value, largely because Russia has been successful in controlling foreign exchange outflows, and also because the The rest of the world has realized that despite everything, the Eurasians continue to sell large amounts of oil and gas and that they have also had the luxury of asking to be paid in their currency or in gold.
So what is the point of sanctions? Have they been of any use? Because it’s clear they were designed to replace US and NATO physical troops, end the war in Ukraine, and bring Putin to his knees.
However, the appreciation of the ruble and the attempts of the Russian president to change the financial geopolitical board, tell us that it is still standing and that it will probably continue as long as there are countries that continue to open the door to it, and that do not join the sanctions. A reality that translates into the fact that the cost of the broken dishes is being paid by the citizens.
As always, the usual.
One of the very few cases in which economic sanctions achieved their goal occurred in South Africa in 1986. The United States Congress imposed severe economic sanctions on that country until it abolished apartheid and released Nelson Mandela, among other conditions. Europe and Japan joined the punishment. The embargo wreaked havoc on the South African economy, prompting the then government to reform its segregationist laws. But this is an exception.
Economic sanctions have not always been able to topple tyrants. An example of this are the regimes of Cuba and Venezuela, which have managed to stay alive by trading with some countries in Europe, Asia and Latin America. The same could apply to Russia, which could survive by selling oil, gas, or other natural resources to countries like China and India, which have not yet joined the sanctions.
To which we must add the variable of a divided world financial system, which could give voice to all those who have decided to get rid of “the tyranny of the dollar” and who have been working for several years to make this happen. In fact, data recently published by the IMF indicates that the percentage that the US has of foreign reserves has been reduced in the last decade. Going from 70% to 60%, in a context in which everything seems to indicate that this trend could very likely continue.
An issue that indicates that even if the fire goes out in Ukraine, the war will undoubtedly continue in another way.
Meanwhile, the Russians will have to drown the suffering in Wodka. Because they have been isolated from the world by air. Economic, and technological, and right now it doesn’t seem likely that they can defeat Putin in an election, or rebel against him.
How much does Vladimir Putin have left? It could be days, but it could also be years.
Last one out turn off the light
Geopolitics teacher
Last one out turn off the light
Mexican analyst and commentator. She studied international relations at the Tecnológico de Monterrey CCM and at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris (Sciences-Po). She has a specialization in Russian foreign policy from MGIMO in Moscow and a master’s degree in Geopolitics, Territory and Security from King’s College London in England.