Premier Jason Kenney says he is confident that Alberta’s COVID-19 restrictions could be eased by the end of March and that this could remove the province’s Restriction Exemption Program. But while some health officials are cautiously hopeful, others say it is too soon to put a timeline on such decisions.
The prime minister made the remarks on Thursday as Alberta reached another high in terms of the number of people in hospital with COVID-19 at 1,469. On Friday, hospitalizations increased again to 1,496. (See Friday’s full COVID-19 data below).
“I am one of the people who wants to see an end to the Restriction Exemption Program and as soon as possible,” the prime minister said on Thursday.
However, Kenney also stressed that this is not the time to ease restrictions, noting that hospitalizations in Alberta are at their highest during the entire COVID-19 pandemic.
“I very much hope that in the foreseeable future we can move towards widespread relaxation of public health measures, including evidence of vaccination program, once we start to see the pressure on hospitals ease,” the prime minister said.
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Kenney said last week that it appears the number of new cases of COVID-19 has peaked in Alberta, but said hospitalizations will continue to rise until the end of January.
He said the decision to facilitate public health measures would be based on data, as well as evidence from other jurisdictions that hit the Omicron Gulf earlier than Alberta.
“I’m pretty confident it’s coming in before the end of March, and I hope it comes,” Kenney said. “I will tell you this: we will eliminate the Restriction Exemption Program as soon as it is safe to do so.
“Let’s just keep, after a few years of this thing, our eye on the ball, keep the backs of the people in our hospitals. Let’s not start with the removal of measures that, in higher transfers, could cause us to relapse into hospitalizations when the hospitals are already under so much pressure. ”
But how realistic is that March target?
Dr. Nazeem Muhajarine is an epidemiologist and professor of community health and epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan. He thinks it’s too early to talk about timelines when it comes to easing restrictions in Alberta.
“To think so far ahead, so early in this fifth wave – I can imagine it’s something to look forward to for people, something they can be hopeful about, which is good – but at the same time it can backfire. It could also send a message that the danger has been lifted, “said Muhajarine.
“I don’t think it really took off, certainly not in Saskatchewan, not in Alberta.”
Muhajarine pointed to the recent emergence in Canada of the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron, which is spreading fairly rapidly in Denmark and the UK
“If BA.2 were to spread, it would lengthen, it would lengthen our winter wave here from Omicron,” he said. “No one really saw Omicron coming before it came, and it came with revenge as we all know when we look back.”
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Muhajarine said officials should be careful in their messages not to give people false hope.
“What we have to say is to get your booster doses. And if you do not have your primary doses, it’s over now and get your vaccine doses right away, minimize your interactions, put off a bit during these winter months, weeks, so we will see this storm of Omicron pass us by and we will come out on the other side. ”
In terms of mandatory vaccine policies, Muhajarine also points to the important incentive it offers.
“One important purpose of that policy is to get people who are still hesitant to get a vaccine to be vaccinated,” he explained.
“Alberta and Saskatchewan, compared to the other Canadian provinces, have a low intake for second doses and therefore we really need to keep that evidence of vaccination policy a little longer. It’s not forever, it will be lifted at the right time must be. ”
Muhajarine believes we are closer to an endemic stage of COVID-19 than we have ever been, but said he will continue to do what he does for a while.
“I’m going to wait out this storm from Omicron until I start meeting with friends and family outside my home.”
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Dr. Caroline Colijn is a professor and model of infectious diseases at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver.
She said there are many factors to consider, but according to model projections, she believes Canada will be in a “fairly strong position” by the end of March.
“This is the assumption that our immunity to vaccination, boosters and especially Omicron infection is very strong against re-infection of Omicron or new offspring,” Colijn warned.
At the moment, Colijn said the risk of infection remains high. However, modeling suggests that infections have peaked in most parts of the country.
“We do think that the wave is now diminishing and this is the first kind of wave we have had that has gone through our population and actually infected so many people that that immunity has built up that way. With previous waves we have always had it reversed with social distancing measures, ”she said.
She said if the immunity to serious diseases provided a high level of protection, it would paint a “fairly optimistic picture” in terms of immunity in Canada by the end of March.
“This is the first time we’re really seeing such massive levels of infection in Canada and hopefully by the end of March it will put us in that strong position.”
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Dr. Dale Kalina, a physician for infectious diseases at Joseph Brant Hospital in Burlington, Ont., Said while March may be “a little aggressive” to facilitate measures, he also appreciates the fact that it is a very difficult was two years.
“The plan to lift restrictions is hot in everyone’s mind,” he said.
‘I also just hope it reflects the cases we see in Alberta when fewer restrictions are in place. Because we have unfortunately seen in the past that restrictions have been lifted too quickly in Alberta and with it overwhelming the health care system, many people are ill and many more people are dying than necessary. ”
Kalina warned there is still uncertainty about what type of long-term immunity can be provided by natural infection.
“The reality is that you get more immunity when you are vaccinated. And against Omicron, we have seen that three doses of vaccine are much better than two,” he said.
“Having a natural infection does not prevent you from getting back to the hospital or having the disease again. I saw it in my hospital, I saw it all over the country. “
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The health workers agree that declining case counts, hospitalizations and deaths are all measures to consider when lifting restrictions. So too are things like wastewater data, the availability of hospital capacity, as well as understanding the virus, how it develops and what other variants can emerge.
In September, the prime minister acknowledged that the province was wrong to lift the majority of public health measures in July. He said the decision at the time was based on analysis of other jurisdictions around the world with similar vaccination rates.
“We were wrong. I apologize for that, ”he said on September 15, as the province was on its way to the peak of the fourth wave, driven primarily by the Delta variant of COVID-19.
Canada’s top doctor said on Friday that several indicators now indicate that COVID-19’s Omicron wave has peaked in Canada, but dr. Theresa Tam was not ready to say whether the worst was behind her.
Tam said she was “cautiously optimistic”, but it was too early to say what the months ahead would be as officials waited for the results of studies to show whether immunity levels remained high in populations after the Omicron wave.
Ontario’s top doctor also said earlier this week he hopes the risk that COVID-19 poses to those in that province will be lower in March and April.
Alberta Health announced 13 additional COVID-19 deaths on Friday afternoon, bringing Alberta’s pandemic death toll to 3,531.
The number of people in hospital ICUs with COVID-19 decreased to 105 on Friday from 106 on Thursday. However, the number of people in hospital with COVID-19 rose to 1,496 on Friday, up from 1,469 the previous day.
Alberta reported 3,036 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 8,655 tests on Friday. The positivity rate was 39.68 percent.
There are now 41,300 laboratory-confirmed active cases in Alberta. However, due to limited access to PCR tests, provincial health officials said the number of new and active cases of COVID-19 in Alberta is actually much higher.
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