Devastated or bombed fields, workers who left to fight, ruined logistics: the russian invasion Ukraine’s cereal harvest, crucial for world food, could be halved, Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister warned in an interview with AFP.
Even though Ukraine harvested 106 million tons of grain last yeara record, this year the figure will be “25% to 50%” lower, warns the minister Mykola Solski in this interview given in writing to AFP. “And that’s an optimistic forecast,” she added.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine shook up the agricultural industry in this former Soviet republic that is famous for its very fertile black land, and which was the fourth world exporter of corn and was becoming the third largest exporter of wheat.
A part of the regions, especially in the fertile south (Kherson, Zaporiya, Odessa, etc.) are inaccessible because they are in the midst of hostilities.
Workers went to fight
The Ukrainians “will sow wherever possible”, but only “50% to 75% of the territories” will be able to be worked, he stresses.
Another problem is that many farmers “joined the army or the territorial defense” creating a labor shortage, says Solsky, whose ministry is trying to install a “system of provisional exemptions” so that farmers are not mobilized.
Despite the war, the Ukrainians have already started planting but the evolution of the situation on the ground forces the farms and the authorities to improvise.
“It is unknown which products will be planted (…) Each farm or farm will make its decision according to the availability of seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and fuel,” explains the minister.
The lack of fuel causes more concern, since before the war fuel was supplied from Russia and Belarus, and from ports whose access is now blocked by Russian forces.
The situation has deteriorated in recent weeks, as Russian bombardments affected several fuel depots, especially in the west of the country, which until then had been less affected.
To reinvent logistics
“The enemy cynically directs its bombardments against fuel depots, knowing that we are preparing for the planting campaign, to affect it”, says M. Solsky. New supplies “are on the way,” he says, without giving details.
Ukraine has enough reserves to feed its own population, which was 40 million people before the war.
The government prohibited or limited exports of many food products, such as wheat, sugar, buckwheat, barley, oats, cattle, or poultry.
The exportscrucial both for the country’s income and for world food, will therefore be affected.
Russia was accused on Tuesday before the Security Council of the UN of creating, through its military offensive against Ukraine, a world food crisis which could have consequences in North Africa and the Middle East.
Before the war, Ukraine exported 4.5 million tons of agricultural produce per month from its ports, but “the blockade effectively stopped exports,” the minister said.
“The Russians bombard our ports and lay mines on sea routes”, whose “restoration will take several years” after the end of the fighting, he warns.
The government “is working to increase export capabilities,” especially with the help of the railways, the official said. But “for obvious reasons, we won’t release it,” he said.