GARRIOCH: Not a whole lot of suspense as the Senators prepare for NHL’s draft lottery

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The Ottawa Senators had no shortage of bad luck last season.

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Maybe they’ll have the Wright stuff to win the annual drat lottery being held Tuesday night at the NHL Network studios in Secaucus, NJ

Hockey fans in the nation’s capital will be gathered around their televisions at 6:30 pm to see where the Senators will select in the first round of the NHL draft — which will be held in person for the first time in two years on July 7- 8 at the Bell Center in Montreal.

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With a chance to select top-ranked North American prospect Shane Wright of the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs on the line, general manager Pierre Dorion, chief amateur scout Trent Mann and the rest of the club’s scouting staff will be waiting patiently to see where the Senators will select.

Finnish winger Juraj Slafkovsky was the top European player from the NHL’s Central Scouting Bureau. He had five goals and 10 points with TPS. Logan Cooley of the USHL is the second-ranked prospect in North America.

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Dorion won’t have to be on hand for the actual lottery because the non-playoff teams will be participating virtually.

The draw includes the 16 teams that missed the playoffs and, although the Senators didn’t expect to be in this position, this spring the club does have five picks in the first three rounds. That’s a lot of draft capital to have in place.

The Senators have the seventh-best odds of winning the lottery at 6.5%. It’s only right the draft host Montreal Canadiens, who had a horrible season, will have the best chance at 18.5% while the Arizona Coyotes are second at 13.5% and the Seattle Kraken have 11.5% odds.

The league made changes to the lottery this year which limits the number of teams that can actually move up to the No. 1 pick. This time around only the top 11 teams in the draft lottery will have a chance at getting the No. 1 overall selection.

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The changes also reduce the chance of the Habs freefalling. In the past, the team that finished with the worst record overall could drop as low as fourth in the draft. Under this format, Montreal can fall no further than No. 3 because teams can’t move back any more than two spots.

That means the Senators are guaranteed to pick in the top 10 because they can’t fall any lower than the No. 9 overall selection.

Also this is the first year that a team can’t win the lottery more than twice in a span of five years.

Unlike past years, there’s not as much anticipation surrounding this lottery for the Senators and why would there be?

No, they won’t have a shot at Wright, but the organization is well positioned with lots of prospects to choose from in the system so it’s not like they necessarily need a player who can make an impact immediately.

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Instead of three lotteries to determine the top three picks, this will be the second year the balls will only be rolled twice.

The club was supposed to be a playoff contender and the chance of getting the No. 1 pick isn’t that great for the Senators. Sure, there’ll be interest in watching where the lottery balls drop, but nothing like the 2020 NHL draft when the Senators selected winger Tim Stuetzle at No. 3 and defenseman Jake Sanderson with the No. 5 overall picks.

Sanderson signed an entry-level deal in March after leaving the University of North Dakota, but wasn’t healthy enough to make his NHL debut. He’ll be with the club in rookie camp and will be part of the tournament the Senators will participate in during September.

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There has been talk this isn’t a strong draft because of a lack of high-end talent, but every trip to the table is what you make it, and if the Senators do a good job so one way or another they’ll have prospects that may play down the road.

Just for fun, we spun the Tankathon draft simulator 10 times Monday. The Habs only won the lottery once in those 10 attempts while the Arizona Coyotes moved up to No. 1 twice, along with Chicago Blackhawks and the San Jose Sharks once.

In nine of the 10 scenarios, the Senators fell backwards to No. 8 nine times because a team in front of them, other than Montreal, turned out to be the lottery winner.

The reality is the Senators will likely stay right where they are at No. 7, but we’ll have to wait to see how the balls drop.

DRAFT LOTTERY ODDS

Montreal Canadians 18.5%

Arizona Coyotes 13.5%

Seattle Kraken 11.5%

Philadelphia Flyers 9.5%

New Jersey Devils 8.5%

Chicago Blackhawks 7.5%

Ottawa Senators 6.5%

Detroit Red Wings 6.0%

Buffalo Sabers 5.0%

Anaheim Ducks 3.5%

San Jose Sharks 3.0%

Columbus Blue Jackets 2.5%

New York Islanders 2.0%

Winnipeg Jets 1.5%

Vancouver Canucks 0.5%

Vegas Golden Knights 0.5%

The Hawks pick will be sent to the Columbus Blue Jackets if it’s not a top-two pick.

Vegas will send its first-round pick to the Buffalo Sabers if it’s not in the top 10.