Free washer | The Jets’ defeats improve the CH choice obtained against Sean Monahan

The Winnipeg Jets have suffered two losses since the arrival of Sean Monahan, employed at the center of the second line between Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers.

Winnipeg did not, however, face clubs at the top of the standings. They lost 4-1 to the Flyers on Thursday and 3-0 to the Penguins on Tuesday. This is a fifth consecutive loss for the Jets.

The Canadian won’t complain about it, obviously. Each setback for the Jets helps push them down in the standings, and improves the quality of the first-round pick obtained for Monahan.

Reverse overall ranking (win rate)

32 – Vancouver 73 points (51 games)
31 – Boston 73 points (51 games)
30 – Florida 68 points (51 games)
29 – Dallas 68 points (51 games)
28 Winnipeg 65 points (49 games)
27 – NY Rangers 67 points (51 games)
26 – Colorado 68 points (52 games)
25 – Vegas 68 points (52 games)
24 – Edmonton 59 points (46 games)
23 – Carolina 63 points (50 games)
22 – Toronto 60 points (49 games)
21– Los Angeles 56 points (48 games)

If the draft were to take place today, the CH would hold the 28e choice. The Rangers, Avalanche and Golden Knights are behind them in win rate because they have played more games, but the Jets still need to win those games in hand to move ahead of them in the standings.

Edmonton sits six points behind Winnipeg, but with three more games remaining. At the rate the Oilers are winning, Montreal can still hope to see them catch up with their Western rivals. The Hurricanes have two points less, but one less game to play. They would draft 23e. After Toronto, five points behind, we have to stop dreaming.

If Winnipeg nevertheless wins its first two rounds of the playoffs and reaches the final four, the general ranking no longer holds, or almost. The losing semi-finalists inherit the 29e and 30e choice. The finalist of 31e pick and the Stanley Cup winner on 32e choice.

Last year, for example, the Florida Panthers finished 17e rank in the general classification, but obtained 31e choice by virtue of their place in the final. Much to the chagrin of the Canadian, who held his first-round pick, obtained in the Ben Chiarot exchange.

Kent Hughes preferred to trade this pick, along with his second round pick, 37e in total, to get Alex Newhook. The Avalanche drafted KHL offensive defenseman Mikhail Gulyayev at 31e rank and traded the other pick to the Lightning to get Ross Colton.

If the Panthers had lost in the first round against the Bruins, Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Colby Barlow, Oliver Moore, Eduard Sale, Oliver Bonk, Gabriel Perreault and Quentin Musty were still available for CH. And Newhook might not be an adopted Montrealer today.

The chances of getting your hands on a quality player obviously drop significantly between the 22nde and the 32e rank. The success rate for finding an NHL regular drops from 50% to 30% from ranks 21-31 to 31-45. Imagining the gradual decline, drafting in your early twenties offers better prospects for success.

Let’s take seven drafts at random, between 2018 and 2012. Let’s compare the 22e and 23e choice with the 30e and 31e choice.


  • 22e K’Andre Miller
  • 23e Isaac Lundestrom
  • 30e Joe Veleno
  • 31e Alexander Alexeyev


  • 22e Kailer Yamamoto
  • 23e Pierre-Olivier Joseph
  • 30e Eeli Tolvanen
  • 31e Kim Kostin


  • 22e German Rubstov
  • 23e Henrik Borgstrom
  • 30e Trent Frederic
  • 31e Sam Steel


  • 22e Ilya Samsonov
  • 23e Brock Boeser
  • 30e Nick Merkley
  • 31e Jeremy Roy


  • 22e Kasperi Kapanen
  • 23e Conner Bleackley
  • 30e John Quenneville
  • 31e Brendan Lemieux


  • 22e Emile Poirier
  • 23e Andre Burakovsky
  • 30e Ryan Hartman
  • 31e Ian McCoshen


  • 22e Olli Maatta
  • 23e Mike Matheson
  • 30e Tanner Pearson
  • 31e Oscar Dansk

We find four leading players among the players drafted at 22e and 23e rank, Miller, Boeser, Burakovsky and Matheson, and ten NHL regulars, against two impact players, Hartman and Tolvanen – and again, he went on waivers –, and seven regulars.

The harvest nevertheless remains modest, it is not a question of choices in the top twenty, after all, and we could understand the Canadian to give up this choice for a young established player, as he did with Dach and Newhook.

Terrible loss in Tampa

The Lightning were finally able to find their defender Mikhail Sergachev, sidelined for 17 games, on Wednesday in New York. Unfortunately, the poor guy broke his leg in two places in the second period and will miss at least the rest of the regular season.


Mikhail Sergachev

This was a terrible stroke of bad luck for the Lightning, whose depth was already thin on defense. After Victor Hedman, we now find Darren Raddysh, Emil Martinsen-Lilleberg, Nick Perbix, Erik Cernak and Calvin De Haan. The first three don’t have 120 games of NHL experience and the last two aren’t exactly top-tier defensemen.

Tampa will have to be creative. Losing Sergachev frees his $8.5 million salary from the pool, but Tampa no longer has a 2024 or 2023 first-round pick, and no 2024 second-round pick.

Due to their success in recent years, the Lightning have only been drafted in the first round twice in the last six drafts, never before the 27th.e rank, and one of those two picks, Nolan Foote, was traded. That leaves Isaac Howard. So there are very few prospects available to serve as bait.

CEO Julien Brisebois and his right-hand man Mathieu Darche have always had the gift of surprising us. The challenge this time is significant.


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