The militarily strongest country north of the Baltic Sea is going to join the Atlantic Alliance. And he’s going to do it at breakneck speed. Probably this Sunday the official decision will be made and at the Madrid summit at the end of June its entry is staged. And, eventually, that of Sweden.
Finland has had an open debate about its security since the late 1980s. Only a quarter of the population wanted to join NATO before the invasion of Ukraine. They believed they had found the balance to maximize their defense: a powerful and modern army, good relations with neighboring Sweden and the US, and a friendly trade deal with Russia, he explains. Charly Salonius PasternakFinnish Defense expert from the Finnish Institute for Foreign Affairs.
Vladimir Putin has blown up this balance. To prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, he has managed to get a small but powerful country to do soand with which it shares a huge border.
On Thursday morning, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto and Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said the country must apply for membership. “Being a member of NATO would strengthen Finland’s security. As a member of NATO, Finland would also strengthen the Alliance as a whole. Finland must be a candidate for membership without delay,” they said in a statement.
The formal decision on membership must be made by a Council on security and foreign policy which brings together the head of state, the prime minister and various ministers.
They will make it official this Sunday, and Parliament will ratify it next week, although this is a mere non-binding procedure, according to Salonius-Pasternak. “Joining NATO is going to happen with complete certainty. A referendum is not necessary, and the support according to the polls is 70-80%. In Parliament there will be a procedural vote, of which 180-185 favorable votes are expected from the 200 seats” he says. “The process has been very fast, six months ago no one would have said that we and Sweden were going to get to the point where we are.”
A powerful air and naval force
The potential new member of the North Atlantic defensive organization does not bring just any Army to the defensive club. “It will be the first or second country in Europe in number of US F-35 fighter jets (they have a purchase program of 64 units), and it has a modern Navy with a powerful corvette program to protect the waters of the Baltic Sea & rdquor ;, he explains Martin HurtEstonian ICDS researcher.
In terms of soldiers, it is also the largest “among the democracies in the region, with 280,000 reservists”adds this expert in the defense of the Nordic and Baltic countries and NATO.
Finland, after the cold war, “did not relax and thought that everything was peace and happiness, and understanding and business with Moscow & rdquor ;, explains this Estonian, whom he personally reassures that an “older brother & rdquor; of the countries bordering the Baltic can at any given time help his country, Estonia, or Latvia and Lithuania, which also border Russia.
Finland shares a huge land border with Russia, a vertical of 1,340 kilometers of border with an Alliance country. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania share the second section of the northern border with Russia, another 738 kilometers. There is one of the most vulnerable points of the European allied countries, the Suwalki corridor, a narrow passage that connects the three with Poland, sandwiched in Russian territory. Although Finland does not have a land border with these three Baltic countries, they are only separated by 90 kilometers of sea.
Hurt puts Finland as a counterexample to Sweden. Stockholm has embarked on the path of modernization of his army relatively recently and he has more than a decade left to rise to the occasion.
Sweden is likely to make a similar announcement to the Finn next week. “It is synchronized with Finland in this regardand Stockholm is expected to present its candidacy on Monday, when they will hold a political debate in Parliament: the Government [de coalición de centro-derecha] More than 50% of the vote has already been guaranteed, but the most important politicians of the Social Democratic opposition have already said that they will support it.”
Another NATO country on the Russian border
Entering the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is relatively easy for any European country. According to article 10 of the 1959 Treaty, the parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any European State “in a position to favor the development of the principles & rdquor; of NATO. Something that Finland and Sweden more than fulfill.
NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, welcomed the Finnish decision. His candidacy “would be warmly received in NATO and the process would be smooth and quick.”
“The process is essentially declarative as long as there is a consensus. To prevent it, one of the members should say no, but it does not seem that even Hungary is going to do it & rdquor ;, he explains to this newspaper Pedro Vilanova, senior associate researcher at CIDOB. “Finland and Sweden will come together and it will probably be staged at the Madrid summit [el 29 y 30 de junio]. It will be fluid, as happened with Montenegro & rdquor ;.
Finland is a country of 5.5 million inhabitants. It was invaded by the Soviet Union in 1939. Before, it was a Russian province between 1809-1917. During the Cold War it was subjected to forced neutrality by Moscow. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, it joined the European Union (EU) and NATO’s Partnership for Peace.
Waiting for the Russian response
“Putin said that it was a red line that Ukraine did not enter NATO so as not to have another country in the Alliance. He didn’t want broth, and now he has two cups& rdquor ;, concludes Vilanova.
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Russia has reacted immediately to the Helsinki announcement. “It is definitely a threat.&rdquor ;, said the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov. “The enlargement of NATO and the Alliance’s approach to our borders do not make the world or our continent a more stable and secure place.”
In a statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry has been more forceful. “Russia will be forced to adopt both military-technical and other response measures in order to counter the threats that have emerged for its national security & rdquor ;. The term, military-technical measures, is the one used by Putin before the invasion of Ukraine.