After Albert Pujols had his 3,000th hit on May 4, 2018, the first player to run off the third base dugout in Seattle was Mike Trout, who promptly hugged the future Hall of Famer before he circle near first base.
At the time, Trout was arguably considered the greatest player in baseball, but Pujols might have been the most successful. It was a moment to celebrate Pujols, but it also meant a career achievement that might one day be possible for his superstar teammate.
Trout was only 26 years old at the time and had 1,076 hits. At that age, no one is a 3,000-hit winner. But if anyone was putting himself in position to get there, it was him.
“There is only one Albert Pujols,” Trout tweeted after the Pujols hit. “The field and the game would not be the same without you.”
Another player, Miguel Cabrera, 39, joined the elite 3,000 club on Saturday. He is the 33rd to do so.
“It’s unbelievable,” Trout said. “There are many hits, I assure you. It’s great. Great for Miggy. Great for baseball.
When something big happens in baseball, people want to know what Trout thinks. When one of the all-time greats does something special, Trout, an all-time great in the making, talks about it.
When all is said and done, there is no doubt that Trout will be another and unique. As de Pujols said, the field and the game won’t be the same without him, because Trout’s greatness is basically unmatched. The question remains, however, of whether he will ever reach the pinnacle of a tally stat like 3,000 hits.
“For sure (it’s a goal for me),” Trout said Saturday. “If I play enough and have the opportunity to stay healthy and be there every day, it’s definitely on your mind. ”
the athletic‘s Stephen Nesbitt broke down why it will be a long time before another player reaches 3,000 hits: the pandemic, base hitters bottoming out, service time manipulation, defensive positioning and dominance. of launchers are just some of the obstacles.
However, Trout isn’t just a home run hitter. He debuted a month before his 20th birthday, and he can get to all fields, which makes it more difficult to get him out. There are several factors, at least on the surface, that make him a perfect candidate for 3000. Still, according to the FanGraphs metric cited in Nesbitt’s story, Trout has only a 5 percent chance of hitting the mark.
The frustrating reality is that two of Trout’s best years were cut short by a pandemic and a debilitating calf injury that comprised the final four and a half months of the 2021 season. Trout posted just 95 hits in 2020-21. In the previous eight years (2012-19), he never had a hit total lower than 123 in a single season. He averaged just over 162 hits per year during those seasons.
“It’s weird stuff,” Trout said. “I can control what’s in front of me, so I have to go out there and play.”
Trout entered the game Monday with 1,433 hits. If those last two years hadn’t been compromised and Trout had stayed on that 162-hit-per-season trajectory, he would be close to 1,700 hits. Trout, however, is on pace to break the 1,500-hit mark sometime in June, putting him halfway through his 12th major league season.
That may seem bleak for the three-time MVP’s hopes of reaching 3,000 hits. But there are some reasons to be optimistic. For one thing, the Angels are committed to Trout through the 2030 season. He’s signed for another eight seasons after this one. If he’s healthy, he’ll have plenty of chances to rack up his total. And while he may not be as fast or as good defensively in the later years of that contract, he will still be one of the most skilled hitters in the game.
But then there’s your walking rate. Over his career, Trout has walked 15.3 percent of the time in 5,711 plate appearances. Pujols walked 13.5 percent of the time in plate appearances in his 30-and-under season, alongside Cabrera’s 11.2 percent.
Most 3,000-hit getters are around or below 10 percent. Adrián Beltré was at 6.95 percent. George Brett with 8.01 percent. Rod Carew with 8.27 percent. Roberto Clemente at 5.27 percent. Lowest on the list? Cap Anson and Nap Lajoie, who played in the 1800s, walked just 3.73 percent of the time in plate appearances at age 30 or younger.
Trout’s walk percentage would be higher than any player to record 3,000 hits. The only one even close to a percentage point is Rickey Henderson.
Hikes, a pandemic and a calf injury will make this difficult for Trout. Of the players who reached 3,000 hits in the last century, Nesbitt calculated that they reached 2,000 hits at an average age of 32.2 years. That won’t be possible for Trout. Based on his past performance, he’s still three or four years away from 2,000 hits. And for Trout to reach 3,000 when his contract expires in 2030, he needs to record 175.7 hits per season this year and in the eight years that follow.
“Three thousand hits, that’s a lot of hits,” Trout said. “You have to go, year after year. Put a lot of numbers.”
Trout’s career will include a long list of impressive tally stats. But it probably won’t be defined by them. Trout could record fewer than 3,000 hits and still be considered one of the greatest offensive players of all time, if not. the elder
(Photo: Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Reference-theathletic.com