EXPLAINER: How is Transnistria related to the war in Ukraine?


BUCHAREST, Romania (AP) — Among the sites of the former Soviet Union’s “frozen conflicts,” a long, narrow strip of land in Moldova has been the most stable for three decades. Trans-Dniester has not seen fighting since the end of a separatist war in 1992.

But the explosions in the last two days have expressed concern that Russia’s war in Ukraine could spread there. Some 1,500 Russian troops are already stationed in Transnistria. Another outbreak of hostilities would present a serious challenge to Moldova, one of the poorest countries in Europe.

WHAT IS TRANS-DNIESTER?

Transnistria stretches some 400 kilometers (249 mi) between the eastern bank of the Dniester River in Moldova and the country’s border with Ukraine. Most of the breakaway region’s population of 470,000 speaks Russian, although residents identify as ethnically Moldovan, Ukrainian or Russian.

Moves to make Moldovan the official language of Moldova in 1989, when it was still part of the Soviet Union, alarmed people in Transnistria. The region declared its independence in 1990 and clashes broke out. Fighting intensified in March 1992 and lasted until a ceasefire in July; It is estimated that more than 700 people have died in the conflict.

As part of the ceasefire agreement, a contingent of Russian troops remained in Transnistria as nominal peacekeepers. Since then, the region has insisted that it is not part of Moldova, which declared independence in 1991.

Trans-Dniester has retained many Soviet forms and iconography, including the use of the hammer and sickle image on its flag. But for the most part it has remained peaceful, and some tourists come to enjoy the anachronisms.

WHAT HAPPENED THERE THIS WEEK?

Explosions rocked the headquarters of the region’s Ministry of State Security on Monday. The building was reportedly empty due to the Orthodox Easter holiday and no casualties were reported. Authorities said the attack was carried out with rocket-propelled grenades. Local media showed what appeared to be fire tubes lying in a street.

On Tuesday morning, a pair of explosions at a broadcasting facility knocked out two powerful antennas. No claim of responsibility for the attacks has been made.

Trans-Dniester President Vadim Krasnoselsky on Tuesday called for imposing anti-terrorist security measures at a “red level” for 15 days, including setting up roadblocks at the entrances to cities.

The United States has warned amid the war in Ukraine that Russia could launch “false flag” attacks on nearby nations as a pretext to send in troops.

DOES RUSSIA HAVE AMBITIONS IN THE REGION?

Russia does not recognize Trans-Dniester as independent, as it does other breakaway areas, such as South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

The recognition of those areas came after Russia and Georgia waged war in 2008 or as a justification for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February. An outbreak of fighting in Transnistria could change the Kremlin’s political calculus; Russia’s security policy states that it has the right to protect ethnic Russian populations around the world.

A senior Russian military official, Rustam Minnekayev, said last week that Russian forces aimed to take full control of southern Ukraine and said such a move would also open up a land corridor between Russia and Transnistria.

Achieving that military objective would require significant battles to capture Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, including the important port city of Odessa. The Russian soldiers would surely meet enormous resistance. The Russian contingent in Transnistria is focused on protecting ammunition and warehouses, and its combat fitness is uncertain.

Moldova is constitutionally neutral, so Russia would not be able to cite the country seeking to join NATO to justify an invasion, as Russian President Vladimir Putin did with Ukraine. But expanding into Moldova would give Russia a presence alongside NATO member Romania.

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Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine



Reference-apnews.com

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