Elections in Andalusia: the keys to the electoral campaign

The election campaign begins at 00:00 on Friday in Andalusia with several open questions, such as the effect that the national situation will have on the elections, the fight for the vote of those who opted for abstention or for Ciudadanos in 2018, the impact of the current economic crisis, or the possible subsequent pacts, among other keys.

1. Juanma Moreno’s roof and its “red lines”

All the polls agree in granting a large majority to the president of the Board and the PP candidate, Juanma Moreno, with the unknown if it will be enough to add alone more than all the leftist parties togetherwhich would open the door for him to try a government alone without a coalition with Vox.

However, the most foreseeable scenario is that of a necessary PP-Vox pact to achieve an absolute majority in Parliament, something that Moreno tries to avoid by even appealing to the disenchanted socialist vote. The popular party does not rule out repeating the elections if there are “unaffordable” requests by Vox and has already marked “red lines”: the Statute of Autonomy and not taking “steps back” in gender violence or in the fight against change climate.

2. The fight of Swords to recover 400,000 lost voters

The PSOE-A lost in the last elections Andalusians with Susana Díaz 400,000 voters compared to the previous ones, who largely went to abstention, so the great challenge for the current candidate, Juan Espadas, is to recover part of that electorate for the cause.

The surveys show no signs of recovery, with a PSOE stuck in the same bracket of seats that it has now, but that niche of voters would be decisive. Juanma Moreno himself asks his people not to be overconfident because that vote can lead to a turnaround.

3. Olona effect or fear of Olona

The choice of Macarena Olona as a candidate for Vox a la Junta stars in part of the electoral campaign in Andalusia, as one of the most visible faces and with the toughest profile of this formation at the national level, but also because of the controversy generated by its dubious registration.

One of the keys will be si there is an “Olona effect”, which encourages a sector of citizens to vote for Voxor if there will be fear of his entry into the regional government, which would have two derivatives: awakening the abstentionist vote from the left, but also diverting part of that “useful vote” to the PP that thinks it is better for Moreno to govern alone.

4. The 21 Ciudadanos seats, to be distributed

The predictable collapse of citizens In the elections, in line with what is happening at the national level and in other communities, will leave a very juicy cake to distribute, 21 deputies that all the parties want to attract to their cause. His candidate, Juan Marín, has already said that he will leave if they win one or two seats.

In principle, it seems that almost all of these seats would go to the PP, where they came from almost four years ago, but socialist voters and a part of the citizen who is disenchanted with the two big parties are also expected to drift to Vox.

5. The left, a tetris difficult to fit

The division and subsequent grouping in coalitions of the parties furthest to the left in Andalusia It is a difficult puzzle to put together for a voter who will find himself with several ballots to choose from and probably doubt who is on each one, which can distribute the vote with a consequent loss of seats.

The coalition for Andalusia includes IU, Podemos and More Country, but the purple lineup is officially out because they were late for registration. In addition, the voter will find themselves with a ballot from Adelante Andalucía in which the face of Teresa Rodríguez, former leader of Podemos, will appear, increasing the confusion.

6. The management of the central government, under review

The Executive of the nation that presides Pedro Sanchez faces a new electoral examalso with a candidate Juan Espadas who was supported by the socialist leader, which turns the Andalusian elections into a direct test for future general elections.

How citizens perceive Sánchez’s management in the central government will be evaluated, but also the position of United We Can in that Executive after recent controversies between partners such as that of the Sahara or political espionage.

7. The relief in the PP with Feijóo

The arrival of Alberto Nunez Feijoo seems to have relaunched the PP in the polls at the national level, with the impact that this may have on the Andalusian elections, in which a significant participation of the Galician is expected, who will also face his first electoral exam, in total harmony with Juanma Moreno.

The last CIS already places the PP on the heels of the PSOE to reach Moncloa. Voters seem to have soon forgotten the historical crisis of the popular with the war between Pablo Casado and Isabel Díaz Ayuso, and that also seems to have been fundamental for Moreno to advance the elections a few months and place them in June.

8. The economic crisis, electoral gasoline at the price of gold

The Andalusian voter will hit the polls on June 19 in the midst of a major economic crisiswith skyrocketing electricity or fuel prices, something that the opposition parties at the national level will undoubtedly use to wear down those in government.

The popular will sell their “economic recipes” to get the country out of the economic situation, starting with Andalusia, and the socialists will have to choose to defend a model of social advances so as not to enter into a price war from which they would be harmed.

9. The rural vote. Before lefts, and now?

The traditional leadership of the PSOE in the rural areas of Andalusia has run out of steam in recent years and that barn of votes on the left is beginning to empty out due to the increase in unrest in the agrarian and hunting sectors, although they are still in the lead.

That anger is being channeled by Vox, who presents himself as a defender of the Andalusian countryside, and The PP also tries to capture it, which takes years of work to convince the agrarian world beyond the topics. In the PSOE they are aware of this leak and that linking the demonstrations for the rise in fuel prices to the extreme right have not helped.

10. On June 19… beach or polls

Related news

The electoral call in June in a community like Andalusia had a difficult fit, between the spring festivities that flood the geography of the community and the arrival of summer, Moreno chose to place them on June 19, just before the end of the school year, with the intention that the greatest number of people go to vote.

Since June, many Andalusians have chosen to travel to the coastal municipalities during the weekends, so the impact on the final number of voters will have to be seen. The parties call for the vote and remember that on that Sunday it is possible to combine the two things.

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