During 2021, most of the economies showed a strong recovery favored by economic stimuli, low interest rates, advances in vaccination processes, as well as the reopening of activities after the confinement of the population.
In this sense, Carlos Alberto González Tabares, Director of Foreign Exchange and Stock Market Economic Analysis of Grupo Financiero Monex estimates that, by the end of 2021, the world economy will present growth of 5.9%. In addition, for 2022, it estimates a growth of 4.9%.
Inflation
The higher demand and the problems in the supply chains -caused by the pandemic- have generated inflationary pressures, being the main variable of concern among investors, given the possibility of a restriction in liquidity greater than expected and / or in a way anticipated, explained Carlos González.
He explained that, only in the United States, inflation recently reached levels of 6.2% per year, its highest level in more than 30 years, and it is expected that next year it will reach levels of 3.8%, still above its historical average. Consequently, a decrease in the purchase of bonds is expected, which could conclude in the middle of next year, a situation that leads to the beginning of a restrictive cycle in reference rates to reach levels of 0.5% by the end of 2022.
The specialist in economic analysis warned that Mexico is not the exception, and in the same way it has been infected by the generalized rise in prices worldwide. At Grupo Financiero Monex, he said, we estimate that inflation will close 2021 at levels of 7.3%, with a decrease in 2022 to close at 4.5%. However, this scenario will be accompanied by further increases in the reference rate to place them at 6.25% by the end of 2022, a situation that will limit the growth of the Mexican economy to an estimated 2.7% by the end of next year.
Exchange rate
The strengthening of the dollar due to the beginning of the withdrawal of economic stimuli, will maintain pressure on the Mexican peso, for which Monex estimates that the exchange rate will be at 20.85 pesos per dollar at the end of this year and at 21.70 at the end of 2022 .
Business sector
For the Index of Prices and Quotations (IPyC), which takes as a reference 35 issuers from different sectors of the Mexican economy, Grupo Financiero Monex estimates that companies present growth at the sales and ebitda level of 5.5% and 4.5%, respectively. . Thus, by the end of 2022, the index is expected to be at 58,000 points out of the 51,000 points it currently stands at.
The companies that make up the indicator have shown adaptability, efficiencies and a decrease in their levels of leverage, which has been reflected in an improvement in financial situation with respect to the levels reported pre-Covid, which means that the stock market is find it more attractive than before the pandemic, assured Carlos González.
He concluded that the possibility of new waves of contagion and the persistence of bottlenecks in the supply chain will be the main factors of concern for next year.
Likewise, he specified that at the local level political noise, controversial legislative initiatives, but mainly energy, will be the one that will present the most attention by 2022 due to the negative effects it could generate on the economy, a situation that for now would not be considered in the estimates.
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Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx