Doug Ford bets on billions in deficit spending as PC presents pre-election budget | The Canadian News


Ontario Premier Doug Ford is betting on billions of dollars in infrastructure spending to get re-elected to a second term, relying on continuing deficits to fuel campaign promises.

The Ford government on Thursday unveiled the “Building Ontario Plan,” a 241-page, $198 billion document that serves as both a provincial budget and an election platform for the PC party.

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With the PCs enjoying a lead in public polls ahead of the June 2 election, the budget provided few surprises that were not previously announced by Ford’s cabinet and the premier himself in recent weeks.

It also painted an optimistic picture of Ontario’s economic prospects, projecting a steady increase in tax revenues, an even greater increase in program spending, and a slow return to balance in the province’s accounts after the substantial deficits caused by COVID.

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And if there was any doubt that the PCs were using the budget as an unofficial provincial campaign launch, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy dispelled them in a budget speech peppered with attacks on the opposition Liberals.

“While all parties today pay lip service to the rising cost of living, it is important to check the record. For 15 long years in office, the previous Liberal government said ‘no’ to giving families a break,” Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy said in his prepared budget speech.

“We are saying ‘yes’ to helping Ontario families with the cost of living. Including the fact that we have reached the best deal on child care of any province in Canada,” Bethlenfalvy added, referring to the recent agreement reached between Doug Ford’s government and Justin Trudeau’s federal Liberals.


Click to play video: Key issues for voters in the upcoming Ontario election.







Key issues for voters in the upcoming Ontario election.


Key issues for voters in the upcoming Ontario election.

Although the Progressive Conservatives intend to run on this budget, it is unclear whether the same document tabled today will be re-submitted should they be re-elected.

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Bethlenfalvy repeatedly dodged questions from several reporters about whether the document could be modified after the June election. After being pressed for an answer, Bethlenfalvy eventually conceded that some aspects were subject to change depending on the course of the upcoming campaign.

“We’re going to go through an election, we’re going to listen to the people of Ontario,” he said.

“This is our plan that we’ve put forward, this is our plan to rebuild the economy, and this is our plan to get those good jobs.”

This prompted concern from opposition critics about a possible “bait-and-switch” budget.

“There must be a hidden budget somewhere, because the Finance Minister refused to commit to the document he put in front of everyone today,” said NDP leader Andrea Horwath.

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Without securing a new budget submission, the tax document may never see the light of day in its current version.

Horwath told reporters that she would not resubmit the same budget document if elected to the Premier’s Office, and Ontario Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca indicated that he would scrap large parts of the fiscal plan.

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The Prime Minister’s Office subsequently clarified that the PC party will resubmit an identical budget document again this year, if the party is re-elected.

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Budget focuses on growth

The Ontario PCs present the budget as a “growth” strategy, investing in things like highway infrastructure and “rebuilding” the economy after COVID-19, while keeping program spending at a steady pace.

But the budget’s own assumptions predict that real GDP growth will decline after a post-COVID bump: from 4.3% in 2021 to 1.9% in 2025.

“Private sector forecasts, on average, project Ontario’s real GDP to grow by 4.1% in 2022, 3.2% in 2023, 2.1% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025. The Ontario Ministry of Finance’s real GDP projections are below the average private sector forecast in each year for prudent planning reasons,” the budget document states.

The Ford government is projected to continue to run deficits over the next five years, moving from a projected deficit of $19.9 billion in 2022-23 to a surplus of $2.2 billion in 2027-28.

But it also clarifies that, should Ontario’s economy grow faster than the government expects, the provincial government could balance the budget as early as two years from now.

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The government’s estimates are at odds with the independent Financial Accountability Office, which earlier this month – and before the new budget measures – predicted the Ontario government could balance the budget by 2023 and run a $7.1 billion surplus by 2026-27.

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Of course, the numbers and projections depend on the Ford government being re-elected in June.

And to that end, the fiscal plan proposes some crowd-pleasing investments and few surprises after a barrage of pre-budget announcements by Ford and his cabinet, including:

-$25.1 billion over the next decade in highway construction, widening and “rehabilitation” projects.

-$61.6 billion over the same period for public transportation projects, including the “commissioning” of the Ontario Line project in Toronto.

-$40 billion over 10 years for hospital infrastructure in the province, and.

-$21 billion over 10 years for “renovation and expansion” of school and childcare infrastructure.

Although pocketbook issues concern politicians of all stripes, a recent Ipsos poll for Global News suggested that health care and the direction of COVID-19 were the top two issues Ontarians said would determine their vote.

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Of the 1,001 voting-age Ontarians polled by Ipsos between April 13 and 14, a total of 31% cited health care as one of their top three voting issues, while 25% said the same of the management of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Affordability issues – lower taxes (24%), help with everyday needs (22%) and making housing more affordable (21%) – round out the top five ballot questions. The Ipsos poll is considered accurate by a margin of 3.5 percentage points, 19 out of 20 times.

While the Ipsos poll gives the advantage to the Liberals and opposition NDP on issues such as health care and the environment, the Ford Conservatives dominate the pocketbook issues.

2022 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.




Reference-globalnews.ca

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