Despite public anger, no progress in Iraq’s political stalemate

BAGHDAD (AP) — Weeks after supporters of an influential cleric stormed parliament, Iraq’s political crisis shows no signs of abating, despite growing public anger over a debilitating stalemate that has further weakened the interim government. of the country and its ability to provide basic services.

Iraq’s two rival Shiite political camps remain locked in a zero-sum competition, and the only voice potentially capable of bridging the gap, the revered Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has been conspicuously silent.

For now, hundreds of supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr, an arsonist Shiite cleric, are still camped out outside the legislative building in Baghdad, ready to escalate if their demands are not met.

Al-Sadr has called for early elections, the dissolution of parliament and constitutional amendments. He has given the judiciary a weekend deadline to dissolve the legislature.

Their Shiite rivals in the Iranian-backed camp have their own terms. They accused him of violating the constitution, prompting counter-protests that raised fears of bloodshed.

Neither faction appears willing to compromise to end the 10-month political crisis, the longest since the 2003 US invasion restored political order. The caretaker cabinet, unable to pass laws or issue a budget, is growing weaker by the day, while the public lashes out at poor services, including power cuts during the scorching summer heat.

UNITING THE WARRING FACTIONS

When al-Sadr ordered thousands of followers to storm Baghdad’s heavily fortified government area on July 30, he paralyzed state institutions and prevented his political rivals from forming a government.

Al-Sadr might have been emboldened by the silence of al-Sistani, 92, a revered spiritual figure whose word carries enormous influence with leaders and ordinary Iraqis.

Three officials from al-Sistani’s seminary in the holy city of Najaf said he has not used his influence because he did not want to appear to be taking sides in the worst internal Shi’ite crisis since 2003. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the public. the media.

“The Marjaiya is watching the situation with concern,” said one of the officials, referring to the Ayatollah. He said that al-Sistani “will not interfere at this time. The input from him can be perceived to benefit one party over another.”

Al-Sistani has rarely intervened in political affairs, but when he has, he has altered the course of Iraqi politics.

In 2019, his sermon prompted then-Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi to resign amid massive anti-government protests, the largest in Iraq’s modern history. Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s administration was sworn in with the aim of holding early elections, which were held in October.

The Ayatollah has grown tired of the current Iraqi political dynamics, the official in Najaf said. He has not resumed his usual Friday sermons, which were suspended during the pandemic. His doors remain closed to Iraq’s political elites, a sign that he disapproves of them.

The seminary in Najaf is also divided by al-Sadr. Some fear his audacity will deepen the Shia divide, while others agree with his anti-corruption and reformist rhetoric. Dozens of seminary students recently joined the protests.

Al-Sistani has red lines that, if crossed, would force him to intervene, the officials said. They include bloodshed and attempts to erode what are seen as Iraq’s democratic foundations.

“Muqtada knows these red lines and will not cross them,” an official said.

IN SEARCH OF A WAY OUT OF THE CRISIS

Even if the Shiite rivals agree to hold elections, fundamental differences over electoral rules remain. There is no legal precedent to guide decision makers.

Al-Sadr has hinted that he will escalate the protests if the judiciary does not dissolve parliament by the end of the week. The judiciary says it does not have the power to dissolve the legislature.

His rivals in the Coordination Framework alliance, made up of Shiite parties largely backed by Iran, say al-Sadr’s pressure on the judiciary is unconstitutional. They are not opposed to new elections, as long as there is a national consensus on how the vote will be conducted.

Such a consensus seems unattainable.

Al-Sadr wants to use the same rules as in the October elections, when Iraq was divided into 83 electoral districts. The current law benefits parties with a strong grassroots base such as al-Sadr, who increased his number of seats from 54 to 73, while Iranian-backed parties saw a decrease from 48 to 16.

The Marco wants the law to be changed. However, the parliament building is closed, with hundreds of al-Sadr supporters camped outside preventing MPs from entering.

WHAT THE REST OF IRAQ THINKS

Ordinary Iraqis are increasingly frustrated that the interim government is struggling to provide basic services like electricity and water.

The political crisis comes at a time of rising unemployment, particularly among young Iraqis. The country has endured consecutive droughts that severely damage the agricultural and fishing industries, further reducing job prospects.

Protests in southern Iraq turned violent last week after stone-throwing protesters clashed with security forces outside oil fields in Missan and Dhi Qar provinces. More than a dozen protesters were detained and more than a dozen members of the security forces were injured.

In Missan, Mustafa Hashem protested against severe water shortages that have damaged livelihoods in Iraq’s marshlands. He said security forces engaged in a “brutal and unwarranted crackdown” on peaceful protesters.

More protests were held in the southern province of Basra after three consecutive days of power cuts during peak summer heat. Protests are common during the summer in Iraq, when rising temperatures overwhelm the national grid and cause outages. This year, many protesters called for al-Sadr to defend his rights.

Salinity levels in Basra this summer are about the same as four years ago, when tens of thousands of people were hospitalized due to poor water quality, environmentalist Shukri al-Hassan said. The 2018 health crisis sparked violent protests that served as a harbinger of massive anti-government demonstrations the following year.

Unable to pass a budget law, the interim government has resorted to stopgap measures to finance urgent expenses, such as food and electricity payments to neighboring countries. Meanwhile, crucial investments, including in water infrastructure, have stalled.

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