COVID-19: For every reported case in BC, 100 people get sick: reports

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The actual number of COVID-19 cases in BC could be up to 100 times higher than what is publicly reported by the government, according to an assessment by independent modelers.

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The BC modeling group, which includes experts from the University of BC, Simon Fraser University, the University of Victoria and the private sector, warned that under-reporting of COVID-19 cases makes it difficult for the public to understand the risks.

UBC epidemiologist Sarah Otto, a member of the modeling group, said it’s important for people to know the infection rate is much higher than reported because it will influence their decisions about how to protect themselves.

“If you look at the BC website, the (infection rate) curves look so low that it would be reasonable to think … maybe we can have more flexible behavior,” said Otto, a Canada Research Chair in Theoretical and Experimental Evolution at UBC specializing in mathematical modeling.

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Using blood test survey data from the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force and Canadian Blood Services, the modeling group estimated that up to 100 times fewer cases in BC are being reported. But provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said past blood surveys show there may be up to 10 times more cases in BC than laboratory tests reveal.

“As we move into respiratory illness season, everyone should remember that COVID-19 continues to circulate throughout the community. People should stay alert, practice COVID-19 safety precautions as needed, and keep their vaccinations up to date,” Henry said in an email.

While it has been known for some time that the number of cases has been underreported due to the use of more expensive lab tests for the public being eliminated and the province not collecting rapid test data, the magnitude was unknown.

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While hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 have been stable and declining recently, it is still important to know the true level of cases, including informing people about when and where to wear masks and when to get vaccinated or receive a vaccine. reinforcement. Otto said.

Even though virtually everyone in British Columbia has been vaccinated or infected, protection will wane over time, perhaps three to four months for the Omicron variant, Otto explained.

On Thursday, BC Health Minister Adrian Dix told CKNW that the health care system is preparing for what could be a very difficult fall and winter with COVID-19 and influenza.

Public health officials ended public briefings last spring and numbers are now being reported online, with more robust data being reported once a week.

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The latest figures from the BC Center for Disease Control show a downward trend since the spring in hospitalizations, intensive care and deaths. There has been a small spike in August, which is now falling.

The latest figures show 24 deaths this week, with 22 people in critical care and 366 people in total hospitalized. The new cases reported this week are 877.

The listed case rates are among the lowest since the pandemic began in the spring of 2020 and one-thirtieth of the peak in the winter of 2021.

Those most at risk of hospitalization or death continue to be those over 60, and in particular those over 80.

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