Temporary or lasting improvement? A new wave to come or a prolonged respite? These questions are on everyone’s mind. While all the indicators – incidence, hospitalizations, resuscitations, deaths – of Covid-19 have been green since mid-August in mainland France, and for a few weeks in the West Indies, a wind of optimism has been blowing over the country, even if the caution is in order. The situation, it is true, remains “Very worrying” in Guyana, according to Public Health France.
“For five weeks in a row, the incidence in mainland France has been declining at a sustained rate, of the order of 25% to 30% per week”, emphasizes Mahmoud Zureik, professor of epidemiology and public health at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin. The week of September 13 to 19, for example, the incidence rate fell by 27%, the number of new hospitalizations for Covid-19 by 28% and that of new critical care admissions by 32% compared to the week. previous one, Public Health France revealed on September 23. That same week, the number of deaths linked to the pandemic was 501, against 608 the previous one.
On Wednesday September 22, government spokesperson Gabriel Attal stressed that the decline in the epidemic “Is confirmed day after day”. Those ” good news, he added, we owe them essentially to the considerable advance in immunization coverage ”. In the process, the spokesperson announced a relaxation of some of the health constraints. In primary school, the obligation to wear a mask will be lifted as of October 4 in the departments where the incidence rate of Covid-19 will be less than 50 per 100,000 inhabitants for five days (41 departments out of 101 are concerned).
“Adaptation of the sanitary pass”
“If it continued to improve in October or November”, wearing a mask could also no longer be compulsory in college, added Thursday, September 23 the Minister of National Education, Jean-Michel Blanquer, on LCI. However, the health pass continues in all departments, this system being “Very effective in keeping open places that should have been closed” otherwise, justified Gabriel Attal, adding that the government would “Continue to work on adapting the health pass”.
Releasing ballast while containing the epidemic: the stake is there. If the authorities sometimes seem to blow hot and cold, how far can they go? “Compared to previous waves, the situation is unprecedented”, notes Mahmoud Zureik, who recalls that during the second wave, no one was vaccinated; the third wave was under threat from the Alpha variant; and the fourth, under that of the Delta variant. A new wave, he said, is not to be excluded, but the vaccination would cushion its impact in terms of severe forms, hospitalizations, visits to intensive care and death. “In the next two to three months, one can be reasonably optimistic. Beyond that, everything will depend on the appearance of new variants, and the effectiveness of the vaccines on them. In any event, current vaccines can be adapted to these new strains. “
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