No, we cannot interpret this result in this way
exclaims Simona Bignami, professor in the Department of Demography at the University of Montreal.
According to the results released by the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ), last Tuesday, Quebec has posted an excess mortality rate of 4.5% since March 2020.
Roughly summarized, this means that during the pandemic, the province recorded 4.5% more deaths than normal. Compared to the rates recorded in the rest of Canada (6.2%), France (7.3%) and the United States (18%), Quebec is a leader in the world.
François Legault therefore retrieved the information by stating that Quebec experienced far fewer proportionately fewer fatalities
thanking his fellow citizens for their respect for health rules more severe
than elsewhere.
The curfew was imposed twice during the pandemic in Quebec.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Jean-Michel Cloutier
Professor Bignami is categorical: This is not the correct interpretation
. While she recognizes that the excess mortality rate is a good indicator for making comparisons, she warns that it is not not perfect
. This is an average, with statistical uncertainty, which cannot be reduced to compliance with health rules alone.
” This figure does not allow us to come to the conclusion that the Prime Minister seems to be drawing. This average is influenced by a range of factors and it is not possible to isolate a single factor. »
Very complex
The ISQ, which released the statistics this week, confirms that the health measures adopted in each state are just one of the factors
may influence the excess mortality rate.
There are geographical aspects that can explain this, such as the movements of travelers, the density of the population, the viral strains that have been in circulation not always at the same time, not always in the same place.
explains Frédéric Fleury-Payeur, demographer at the ISQ.
Traveler movements are one of the many factors that influence the excess mortality rate.
Photo: Reuters
Quebec’s good results could therefore be partly attributable to other variables, which did not necessarily prevent people from dying from COVID-19.
The curfew and the mask, for example, may have led to a reduction in deaths linked to the flu or accidents of all kinds.
” To decide what is the contribution of each of these factors, it would be up to public health experts and epidemiologists to do so, but it would still be a very complex task. »
A rate that changes over time
Mr. Fleury-Payeur also points out that Quebec has not always had such an enviable excess mortality rate as at present.
At the start of the pandemic, when the first wave hit the CHSLDs hard, the province was rather one of the most affected places
he recalls.
This is a fundamental element to take into consideration, according to Simona Bignami. The excess mortality estimate should not be taken as an absolute number, because it is a number that changes over time.
If Quebec’s excess mortality rate subsequently fell, it was partly because thousands of seniors lost their lives in the spring of 2020. The following year, there were therefore not as many people left likely to die of COVID-19 in the most vulnerable age groups, says Ms. Bignami.
The CHSLD Herron was one of the hardest hit during the pandemic in Quebec.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Ivanoh Demers
His colleague Alain Gagnon, also a professor of demography at the University of Montreal, also hypothesizes that the horrible stories of the first wave may have contributed to a recapture
which resulted in stricter measures and better adherence to the rules among the population.
” There was still a kind of awareness. »
In this sense, Professor Gagnon believes that health rules have played a role in the good excess mortality rate that Quebec is experiencing today, but affirms that more data will be needed to understand the importance of this causal link.
The swallows come back in the spring, but it is not the swallows that bring back the spring, he illustrates. Correlation is not necessarily proof of statistical association.
Soon the effects of load shedding?
Professor Gagnon also warns that Quebec is not immune to an increase in its excess mortality in the coming years, because the province has had to do some load shedding to preserve its health network.
If many citizens suffer the delayed consequences, this is likely to be reflected in the statistics.
” We need to know if all these delays in surgical interventions, diagnoses, will not have effects on long-term mortality. We haven’t done that yet. »
It may take a few years before it shows up on the life expectancy curves.
he says.
Reference-ici.radio-canada.ca