Consumer optimism slightly advances in October

In October, the confidence of Mexican consumers managed to advance for the second consecutive month, although with a marginal increase compared to September, according to data released by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

The Consumer Confidence Indicator (ICC), which shows the perception that consumers have of the Mexican economy, stood in October at a level of 43.6 points, 0.1 points higher than the level registered a month before and 5.9 points more in annual comparison .

In this way, the ICC approached the level that was registered prior to the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic in the country. In February of last year, the indicator stood at 43.7 points.

The increase, although marginal, is the result of a slowdown in infections from the third wave of Covid-19, and the ICC continues to be impacted by the health situation that has been experienced in the country for more than a year, according to with analysts.

“The data fits with the logic of deceleration that has prevailed since the beginning of the third quarter of 2021 and where the rebound in Covid-19 infections seems not to be the only catalyst,” said Marcos Daniel Arias, an analyst at Monex.

For her part, Gabriela Siller, Director of Economic and Financial Analysis at Banco Base, pointed out that the indicator has increased 13.3% so far in 2021; however, it still lags 0.21% compared to the pre-pandemic level.

Buying chances fall

Inside the report it was observed that the only component that had a monthly decline was the one that refers to the possibilities of buying furniture and household appliances.

This indicator –which is the one with the lowest level with 23.2 points– registered a decrease of 0.2 points in October compared to September.

“The only component that fell back was the one that corresponds to the possibilities of purchasing durable goods, being the component most affected by the pandemic, showing a lag of 10.2% compared to the pre-pandemic level,” Gabriela Siller highlighted.

In the complementary indicators, decreases were also observed in some components related to purchasing power. Plans to buy cars decreased 0.3 points, while the purchase, construction or remodeling of a house fell 0.6 points.

In contrast, they increased the perception of the possibility to buy clothes, shoes and food, with an increase of 0.6 points, and the possibility of going on vacation increased by 0.9 points.

In the case of savings, a monthly increase of 2.0 points was observed with respect to the current possibilities of saving, while the future possibilities advanced 1.1 points.

“The complementary indicators had a mixed performance, since five of the 10 variables had gains, four losses and one remained stagnant. However, on the positive side, the variations were substantial in the current savings possibilities and the possibilities of going on vacation, which slightly balances the tone set by the main indicators. Of the 10 elements, only the expectation of the personal situation and the possibilities of saving are located above the threshold of 50 points ”, highlighted Marcos Daniel Arias.

Within the main indicators, all presented monthly increases compared to September, except for the possibilities of purchase.

The component that presented the greatest advance was the one that refers to the future economic situation of the country, with 0.9 points.

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