Close Calls: Here Are The Rides That Could Have A Photo Ending On Election Night | The Canadian News

As politicians cross the country trying to win the hearts and minds of Canadians, polls have been predicting a tight election result as liberals and conservatives sit side by side.

At times like this, every seat counts, and some of those seats can be decided with just a few votes.

“The truth is that electoral campaigns in Canada are not decided by who wins the popular vote. They are decided by who wins the seats, ”said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos.

“So the swing circuits, the circuits that are really up for grabs and are competitive, are the most important thing to understand.”

Fewer than 500 votes decided the outcome of multiple constituencies in 2019, ensuring a minority government for the Liberals. With September 20 just around the corner, these are the districts you’ll want to get a close look at on Election Night.

Located within the limits of historic Quebec City, the governance of Quebec is currently in the hands of liberal cabinet minister Jean-Yves Duclos, who is seeking re-election.

But he has a tight race ahead of him. Only 215 votes separated him and the Québec Bloc candidate Christiane Gagnon in the 2019 federal elections, and tight polls show that the 2021 result could be influenced by just a handful of votes.

Bricker speculated that Duclos was appointed cabinet minister in part because his leadership is something that liberals “cannot afford to lose.”

“Definitely a walk to see on election night,” he said.

To change this seat, the Conservatives would have had to have made a lot of progress since the 2019 federal election. The Conservative candidate was behind Duclos by just under 10,000 votes in the last election.

The Bloc Quebecois hasn’t performed as strongly in the polls of late, which, in such a tight race, could potentially help boost conservatives, according to a political scientist. But it is unlikely to give them the 10,000-vote boost they would need to steal the seat.

“Conservatives have support in the Quebec City area,” said Nelson Wiseman, professor of political science at the University of Toronto.

“I see helping the liberals, because I think more blocists will switch to the conservatives.”

This poll will be one of the first to close on Election Day. And according to Bricker, watching the outcome of this drive could help paint a picture of what Canadians can expect from the rest of election night.

“If you see that it’s up to the Conservatives, then you know it will be a very good night for the Conservative Party.”

Quebec isn’t the only promenade in La Belle province that voters will want to get up close to on election night. The Montreal riding awarded the Bloc Quebecois with their votes until 2011, when it changed hands to the NDP.

The orange wave remained strong until 2019, when the liberal candidate Soraya Martínez Ferrada surpassed the Bloc Quebecois by a margin of just 319 votes.

“Hochelaga is interesting because it is one of those districts that seems to flirt with all the parties that are competitive in the province of Quebec, and it seems to reflect what is going on in terms of how the province as a whole is voting in the election campaign, Bricker said .

On the night of the elections, the parade will be “a good test of whether the Liberals or the Québec bloc, as we hope in this electoral campaign, will be close.”

Wiseman said he hopes the Liberals will also hold on to this ride, just barely.

“I would also give it to the liberals. But I’m not so sure about that, ”he said.

“I’m not sure that the NDP vote is weaker in Quebec, but it could end up being weaker in that leadership, and I could see… the Liberals and the Bloc putting resources into that leadership. If it continues the same, which I think will be for little, it will go to the liberals. “

However, many things can change between now and Election Day, Wiseman warned. Not to mention, according to Bricker, Quebec in general “is a total disaster.”

On Election Night 2019, the Liberals also won the Richmond Hill race. Aside from a four-year Conservative stretch in 2011, the Liberals have held the race since 2004.

But that was very, very close to changing in 2019.

Liberal candidate Majid Jowhari secured the seat with a lead of just 112 votes, while conservative candidate Costas Menegakis hot on his heels.

The two candidates will meet once again on September 20.

“It’s one of those districts where the conservatives and the liberals are competitive and it switches back and forth and follows what happens in terms of the national elections,” Bricker said.

“So both liberals and conservatives have won it when they have won their majorities.”

The drive stretches to both sides of 416 and 905, putting liberals and conservatives at the same time as the more urban parts of Richmond Hill convincing liberal supporters.

Wiseman said he expects the Conservatives to have an advantage in this race on Sept. 20.

“I think you have to give the conservatives the go-ahead today, and I’ll tell you why, because even though the NDP candidate only got nine percent of the vote (in 2019), I think they will do better,” he said.

“And those who enjoy those votes will be diverted from the liberal candidate. So that would allow the Conservatives to win that trip, even if their vote doesn’t increase, even if their vote decreases, to a very limited extent. “

This driving will give Canadians watching the results a more snapshot of what they can expect from the end result.

“If either party is going to win, on election night, most of the 905 constituencies will probably have to choose Richmond Hill,” Bricker said.

No horseback riding has received as much attention during this election campaign as Port Moody – Coquitlam. The BC leadership has been able to have face-to-face time with all of the party’s top leaders as they competed for votes in this incredibly close race.

The result of the 2019 elections was almost a three-way tie. The Liberal, NDP and Conservative candidates all finished about 1,100 votes apart, although it was Conservative candidate Nelly Shin who ultimately took the seat, beating the NDP candidate by just over 300 votes.

Historically, the leadership has moved in many ideological directions. It has had Conservative, NDP, and Liberal MPs for the past 30 years. It was briefly split into two separate constituencies in 2004 before being re-stitched during the 2015 elections. One of those districts remained in the NDP for that decade, while the other stayed with the Conservatives.

“Port Moody – Coquitlam is an interesting ride because it has been the seat of very high profile members of both the NDP and the Conservative Party,” said Bricker.

“There are not too many districts that switch between the Conservatives and the NDP.”

Wiseman said this is the one who is confident that he will turn to the NDP, although a lot can happen between now and Election Day.

“I’m pretty sure one of them rocks, and that’s Port Moody – Coquitlam, which the Conservatives won (in 2019,” he said.

“In light of the earnings from the NDP, and in particular, I think in British Columbia, I think that seat will go to the NDP.”

If Wiseman’s prediction is correct, that’s a blow to the Liberal Party’s hopes for majority rule.

“It’s definitely a ride that liberals would love to take up. If they’re going to win the majority, they have to pick up this writing, ”Bricker said.

But, he noted, the NDP “has some history here.”

“If he recovers, they are going to have a very good night in British Columbia, and current polls show that the NDP (is) more competitive in British Columbia than in the last election campaign,” Bricker said.

Still, there are a wide variety of factors that could change the landscape between now and Election Day. Many voters don’t even make a decision until the last week of the election, according to Anna Esselment, a professor of political science at the University of Waterloo.

“There is a swath of people who don’t really make their decision to vote until the last week,” he said.

“So school takes a week. You know, kids are starting to settle in, routines are starting to return. And I think some voters say, ‘oh, there is an election.’ So when you go to the field, when the pollsters go to the field, what they get now is probably more of the decisions. “

That means the polls could still fluctuate quite a bit in the next week.

“Canadians are actually making their decisions,” he said. “And now that can be collected in the data of public opinion.”

So far, national polls have been a bit all over the place, according to Wiseman.

“National polls are not consistent today,” he said, noting that various respected polling firms are predicting different election results.

Either way, Bricker said the final sprint of the election campaign will be a very busy one.

I think we will see more passion in this last week as both sides fight to possibly win a plurality of seats, “said Bricker.

“But it is a very, very close election right now.”