caused by humans climate change made last week’s deadly heatwave in England and Wales at least 10 times more likely and added a few degrees to how brutally hot it got, a study has found.
A team of international scientists discovered that the heat wave that marked a new high national record at 104.5 degrees Fahrenheit (40.3 degrees Celsius) it was made stronger and more likely by the buildup of heat-trapping gases from burning coal, oil and natural gas. They said Thursday that temperatures were 2 to 4 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer in the heat wave than they would have been without climate change, based on the method scientists used.
The study has yet to be published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, but it follows scientifically accepted techniques, and previous studies were published months later.
“We wouldn’t have seen temperatures above 40 degrees in the UK without climate change,” study lead author Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, said in an interview. “The fingerprint is super strong.”
World Weather Attribution, a collection of scientists from around the world who make real-time studies of extreme weather to see if climate change played a role in an extreme weather event and, if so, how much of one, looked at two-day average temperatures to July 18 and 19 in much of England and Wales and the highest temperature reached in that time.
The daily hottest temperatures were the most unusual, a one-in-1,000-year event in today’s warmest world, but “nearly impossible in a world without climate change,” the study said. Last week’s heat topped the old national record by 1.6 degrees Celsius (2.9 degrees Fahrenheit). The average of two hot days and nights is a once-a-century event now, but it’s “almost impossible” without climate change.
When scientists used the long history of temperatures in England to determine the impact of global warming, they saw a stronger influence of climate change than when they used climate model simulations. For some reason scientists aren’t quite sure, climate models have long underestimated extreme weather signals in the summer in Western Europe, Otto said.
With climate models, scientists simulate a world without the 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since pre-industrial times and see how likely this warmth would have been in that colder world without fuel-laden warming. fossils. With observations they look at history and calculate the chances of such a heat wave in that way.
“The methodology seems solid, but honestly, I didn’t need a study to tell me this was climate change,” said Marshall Shepherd, a professor of meteorology at the University of Georgia, who was not on this study team but was at the National Academy. from USA Sciences panel that said these kinds of studies are scientifically valid. “This new era of heat is particularly dangerous because most of the houses are not equipped for that there.”
The World Weather Attribution study refers to another analysis which estimates that a heat wave like this would kill at least 800 people in England and Wales, where there is less air conditioning than in warmer climates.
Study: Climate change made UK heatwave hotter and more likely. #ClimateChange #HeatWave #UnitedKingdom
Otto, who had to sleep and work in the basement because of the heat, said that as the world warms, these heat waves break records. will keep coming more often and hotter.
In addition to encouraging people to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, study co-author Gabe Vecchi said “this heat wave and heat waves like it it should be a reminder that we have to adapt to a warmer world. We no longer live in the world of our parents.”