Caniem expects a 35% favorable year-end compared to 2020

“We have the firm conviction that, despite the numbers, the book has emerged stronger from the pandemic. After her, everyone is clear about its importance ”. This was noted by José Calafell Salgado, CEO of Grupo Planeta’s Latin America Division, who accompanied Juan Luis Arzoz Arbide, president of the National Chamber of the Mexican Publishing Industry (Cani), and Ignacio Uribe Ferrari, coordinator of the Chamber’s Data Management Commission, during the presentation of the industry numbers in the last two years, within the framework of FIL Guadalajara.

It confirmed a favorable outlook for the industry for the end of the year, which El Economista anticipated in the November 26 edition based on figures from Nielsen Bookscan in terms of volume.

In terms of value, that is, of sales revenue, the Cani presented a forecast at the end of the year of about 11,999 million pesos, which is more than 3,000 million pesos, 35% above last year. If this scenario is confirmed, the billing numbers for 2019 (11,200 million pesos) would even be exceeded by a small margin.

Now, Calafell Salgado specified that although it is a small positive margin compared to 2019, this year inflation close to 7% “still places sales in a real fall. In addition, this inflation for us as an industry is even higher because the costs of raw materials are increasing in a very relevant way due to the problem of global supply ”.

José Calafell Salgado, CEO of Grupo Planeta’s Latin America Division. EE Photo: Ricardo Quiroga

However, the Grupo Planeta representative said that in the medium term, the outlook is positive. And he added that the pandemic left a fundamental learning:

“We definitely have to support bookstores in Mexico. We will be subject to these ups and downs if we do not strengthen the bookseller channel. There is hardly any speech in the industry that does not say: ‘we are going to support the booksellers’. Well, we are going to support them with concrete ideas. And the first is to strengthen our single price law. Without it, our bookstores have no future and this is not an opinion, it is a proven act. Let’s see the opposite case in Brazil, where the price is free and where there are no longer any bookstores. The market is dominated by a single ‘dot com’ that sells 60% of what is sold in that country. If we don’t support the bookseller in Mexico, that’s what will happen. So clear”.

What happened to the “law of the book”?

On the reforms to the Law for the Promotion of Reading and the Book, promoted during the last legislature, among which the extension to 36 months of the single price of the book stands out, a measure that promises to improve the market balance among booksellers, Arzoz Arbide shared that he stopped at the request of Profeco to study it more at fund, since it would be in charge of sanctioning infringements of the single price.

Luis Arzoz Arbide, president of the National Chamber of the Mexican Publishing Industry. EE Photo: Ricardo Quiroga

“We are hopeful that with this new legislature they will raise it again to the plenary session. It is already perfectly refurbished and clear, with other changes that can help it. I would hope that next year it will be approved and applied ”, anticipated the president of Caniem.

On the other hand, Calafell Salgado declared that “the issue of support for booksellers has to do not only with the single price law, but with other things, such as the tax regime: the possibility of deducting VAT; It has to do with the fact that it is not considered an essential economic activity, with which it is subject to closures, like any other. It also has to do with land use issues in some places. There are many things and a comprehensive program and initiative is required ”.

The digital book coexists

During 2020, the digital book market grew, but it did not gain ground to the printed one. “And in Mexico it is growing. We are lagging behind other countries, but it is evolving faster every day, ”Arzoz said.

In 2019, he shared, the digital book closed with a turnover of 232.5 million pesos, while in 2020 it sold 338.1 million pesos, that is to say that in a matter of a year, due to the restrictions, this sector grew from 2% to 4 % share in the entire publishing market.

Although at the most critical moment of 2020 there was definitely a moment of substitution in the digital book market for the physical one, Calafell indicated, it is observed at present, especially in European markets, that digital publishing content continues to grow, although at a slower pace, while the sale of printed matter “is launched”, as in the case of Spain, which up to now has an integral growth of 17 percent.

Ignacio Uribe Ferrari, coordinator of the Caniem Data Management Commission. Photo EE: Ricardo Quiroga.

Among the public present for this conference in the FIL Guadalajara press area was the economist Ernesto Piedras, who added that the evolution of technological supports facilitates the affinity with digital reading, but allows the coexistence of both formats: “we we’ve done a lot more digital, but we miss paper. One more data for a good perspective is that there are 129 million mobile lines, 121 million smartphones that are already medium and high range. That is why we are already being able to read, because as a medium they have better memory and resolution ”.

The above means that yes, many people adopted digital but also returned to print. In summary, the perspective is that the print and digital market will continue to grow, those present agreed, with good expectations for Mexico.

A monopoly?

The press present at the conference asked the presenters if they consider that there is a monopoly or duopoly in the Mexican publishing industry.

There is no publisher in Mexico that reaches anywhere near 30%. Therefore, there is neither a monopoly nor a duopoly, nor an oligopoly. It is an atomized market like few others, ”Calafell replied.

They were also asked if they consider that there is public piracy, that is, a misappropriation of copyright by the publishing State.

“No, what you’re saying is very serious. There may be a specific incident at some point, a misunderstanding, something that needs to be clarified, definitely, but public piracy, I don’t think there is at all ”, he added.

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Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx

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