Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD Seeks Resistance

Canadian Dollar Price Technical Outlook: Near-Term Trading Levels

  • Canadian dollar Updated technical trading levels – daily and intraday charts
  • USD/CAD break presses short-term uptrend resistance – constructive above 1.2503
  • Resistance ~1.2680s, 1.2710 (key) – Support 1.2586/93, 1.2565, 1.2503 (critical)

The American dollar down more than 0.70% against the Canadian dollar since the start of the week, a two-week rally in USD/CAD carried the price towards key technical resistance. These are the updated targets and override levels that matter in the American dollar/SCOUNDREL Post-BoC price charts. Check my last Strategy Webinar for an in depth breakdown of this technical loonie settings and more.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - Daily USD/CAD - Loonie Trading Outlook - USDCAD Technical Forecast

Graph made by Miguel Boutrostechnical strategist; USD/CAD at Tradingview

Technical perspective: In last months Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we highlighted a multi-week range in USD/CAD by noting, “rallies should be capped by 1.2766 IF price does indeed head lower on this pullback with a break keeping focus on the close of the yearly low (area of ​​interest for potential exhaustion). Ultimately, we look to validate a bottom in the coming days to keep the broader 2021 uptrend viable.” USD/CAD tumbled more than 3.8% from the March high with price hitting a low of 1 .2402 before bouncing sharply off trend support until the April open.It is important to note that the opening yearly range holds here and from an objective standpoint we are just breaking out of range support.So, The Medium-Term Question: Uptrend Resumption or Just a Bear Market Bounce?

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 120min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 120 min - Loonie Trading Outlook - USDCAD Technical Forecast

Grades: A Closer Look at the Loonie’s Price Action Shows US dollars/Canadian dollars trade within the limits of an ascending Gallow formation that extends from the lows of March/April. Initial rendurance is observed along the upper parallel (currently ~1.2680s) supported by a more significant technical confluence at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of year-to-date range in 1.2710 – A breach/daily close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant low was recorded last week with such a scenario exposing the January high in one.2813 and the closing of the annual high day in 1.2880. Initial support rests at the low of early March / retracement of 38.2% in 1.2586/93 supported by the open weekly target at 1.2565. northear-term bullish nullity raised at the April open in 1.2503.

Bottom line: USD/CAD breakout rallied above yearly open and keeps focus on confluent resistance at 1.2710. From a trading point of view, a good area to reduce portions of long exposure / raise protective stop – losses should be limited to the monthly open at 1.2503 IF price heads up with a gap exposing the upper targets to the highs of the annual range. check my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at longer-term USD/CAD technical trading levels.

For a full breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, check out his Fundamentals of Technical Analysis Series in Bbuilding a Tqualifying yesstrategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – ​​USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Retail Positioning - USDCAD Technical Outlook

  • A summary of IG Customer Sentiment shows traders are net long USD/CAD – ratio stands at +1.50 (60.04% of traders are long), typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are8.20% less than yesterday and 20.14% less than last week
  • Short positions are 2.98% more than yesterday and 38.18% more than last week
  • We generally take a contrary view to the sentiment of the crowd, and the fact that traders are net long suggests that USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. However, traders are less net than yesterday and compared to last week. Recent changes in feeling warns that the current USD/CAD price trend may soon reverse to the upside despite traders remaining net-long.

US/Canada Economic Calendar

US/Canada Economic Calendar - USD/CAD Weekly Event Risk - Canadian Dollar Key Data Releases

economic calendarlatest economic developments and upcoming risk events.

Active technical configurations

– Written by Miguel BoutrosDailyFX Technical Strategist

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