The invasion of Ukraine by Russia increased the volatility of the markets left by Covid-19. By proximity, European countries are among the most affected.
The price of raw materials it shot itself. The price of corn and wheat has risen in the international market due to dependence on grain from Ukraine, a nation that is known as the breadbasket of Europe.
The price of natural gas It fell in just over 60 days of the conflict despite the fact that Russia is a major supplier of energy to the Old Continent. The reason, analysts say, is because it’s spring; however, the risks in Europe will continue due to the great dependence of the raw material on the Russian supply.
The Mexican stock market progressed in that period. The reason, experts say, is because of the robustness of the numbers of the Mexican companies listed, among other factors. Stock markets in Mexico rose more than 3% in the period.
Russia is a great producer of oil in the world, is one of the first. It pumps more than 10 million barrels a day and exports half of them.
The price of Brent and WTI they rebounded in the foreign market more than 10%, which helped to raise the price of the mix of crude, heavy and light, that Mexico exports.
Really, what is moving the markets is not the war, but the economic sanctions imposed, and what the invasion of Crimea made clear is that the sanctions were maintained, even though the invasion lasted only a short time”.
Amin Vera, Director of Research at Black Wallstreet Capital.
Stock markets in Europe and Asia have felt the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine more strongly in the past 60 days, while Latin American and United States markets have recovered to pre-war levels and now have their sights set on a scenario of rise in interest rates in the United States.
In Europe, the stock markets that still record losses are the Cac 40, in France, which stands at 6,581.42 points and falls 2.94% from February 23 to date, followed by the German Stock Exchange, Dax, which falls 3.34% and is placed in the 14,142.09 integers.
The Ibex 35 of Spain presents the greatest rebound of 2.51%, at 8,652.30 units and the English FTSE-100 stands at 7,521.68 integers, advancing 0.31 percent.
In Asia, the Hong Kong stock exchanges, the Hang Seng, register a loss of 12.77% at 20,638.52 points, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange has dropped 11.53% since the beginning of the invasion, and stands at 3,086.92 units .
Watch out for higher rates
Amin Vera, Director of Economic Analysis at Black Wallstreet Capital, explained that “what is moving the markets is not the war but the economic sanctions, and what the invasion of Crimea made clear is that the sanctions were maintained, although the invasion will last a short time.
He added that “the market is no longer moved by the war, but by the increase in interest rates by the United States Federal Reserve. It is no longer Putin who moves the market, it is Powell.”
The Mexican market advances. The Institutional Stock Exchange, (BIVA), the second stock exchange center in the country, gains 3.89%, to settle at 1,101.76 points; meanwhile, the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) increases 3.56% and registers 53,191.78 units.
Alain Jaimes, senior analyst at Signum Research, mentioned that “the Mexican market has benefited from the robust fundamentals of several issuers listed on the Stock Exchange, which have shown resilience despite the challenging price situation and economic stagnation.”
“In the same sense, although there is uncertainty in public policy within Mexico, the healthy framework of public finances that it possesses is undeniable, which differentiates it from its emerging peers,” he added.
Amin Vera commented that “as long as the prices of raw materials remain high, Latin American markets such as Colombia, Brazil, Peru, Chile, Mexico and Argentina will benefit because they will receive more for their raw material exports, but they already have high prices. interest rates that would impact their economies.
The main indicators of Wall Street also remain on the rise in said period, the greatest growth is for the Dow Jones industrial, which increases 2.05% to 33,811.40 points, while the S&P 500 increases 1.10%, standing at 4,271.78 units.
The technological NASDAQ is the exception as it remains at 12,839.29 points, with a slight drop of 1.52% compared to the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine.
Alain Jaimes indicated that, “undoubtedly, any armed conflict generates uncertainty, which is why there are rearrangements in portfolios at the international level, benefiting those assets with lower risk, so that the levels of the stock markets, not only in the United States but in the world are strongly influenced”.
He explained that “in the same sense, inflationary pressures have played a decisive role in the results of North American companies, which have seen their results affected during the first quarter of the year.”
The specialist explained that although there has not been a severe escalation in geopolitical tensions recently, it is not possible to say that conditions will improve in the future, so the outlook for the markets still includes a strong component of uncertainty.
He mentioned that despite the fact that there has been a recovery from the critical levels observed at the worst point of the war, adjustments in the main stock market indices in the world could occur again. This is because there is no clear picture of the magnitude and duration of the conflict.