The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins will get underway in the second of their three-game series in the Twin Cities. The first game was interrupted by rain in the fourth inning, with the Astros winning 5-1.
As usual, the Astros are off to a good start and come in today with a 19-11 record. Likewise, the Twins have been impressive starting the season, going 18-12 and atop the AL Central by 2.5 games.
Who will get game two of this series? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Twins on Thursday May 12.
Astros vs Twins Odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each regulated bookmaker betting market.
The opening odds for today’s matchup were released last night. The Astros opened as -105 favorites. Since then, Houston has received a lot of money. It’s now around -130 in most stores, and the Twins are back at around +110. The total opened at eight and has increased to 8.5 since then.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movement down to first pitch, and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Astros vs. Twins Tips & Predictions
Selections made on 05/12/2022 at 11:00 am ET.
Click on each selection to access the full analysis.
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Astros vs Twins game information
• Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Thursday, May 12, 2022
• first pitch: 1:10 p.m. Eastern Time
• TELEVISION: ATT SportsNet Southwest, Bally Sports North
Astros vs Twins Betting Preview
Luis Garcia (2-1, 3.45 ERA): If Luis García is something, he is consistent. He’s not going to be a game-locking guy for you, but overall, he’s been pretty solid. Through 18 innings of work this season, he has allowed 12 runs, which is not a bad start to the season for a young pitcher. Once again, he relied on an impressive K-rate and a great shooting arsenal to get the job done. The metrics are generally positive for Garcia, and an expected ERA of exactly three makes you think he can improve this start.
Josh Winder (2-0, 1.61 ERA): Josh Winder has been one of the most impressive rookies in the league so far this season. He’s off to a stellar start with metrics that make you believe he’s sustainable. In 22 innings, Winder has allowed four earned runs. He’s seen some big bats, like the Red Sox and White Sox, and he’s been solid. He hasn’t delved too deep into many games, but you’d have to think it’s about time.
Be sure to monitor game weather conditions with our MLB weather information.
Stars: Jake Meyers CF (Out).
Twins: Carlos Correa SS (Out), Miguel Sano 3B (Out), Luis Arraez 2B (Out), Chris Paddock SP (Out), Dylan Bundy SP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Astros’ last five games against a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. twins
Astros vs Twins Tips and Predictions
Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite selection in all markets.
money line analysis
I have to travel with the newbie in this place as I think the value is too much to pass up.
I think the oddsmakers aren’t giving Twins pitcher Josh Winder full credit for how good he can be. It’s pretty clear that the ceiling hasn’t been reached yet, but what we’ve seen so far is impressive. Winder’s slider has done a good job of inducing soft contact. It’s a vital part of his arsenal and why he’s in the top half of MLB in hard hitting percentage.
Another big advantage of Winder in this matchup is that he does an excellent job of forcing teams to “under” his breaking balls. Usually when that happens, he leads to a lot of soft fly balls and easy outs. The Astros are seventh in the MLB in “low” contact. So, Winder will generally lean in since he’s one of the things he’s trying to do at the plate.
I think this matchup of the Twins hitters against Garcia is a good one. I’m a fan of his, but he relies on strikeouts and when that doesn’t happen, he tends to struggle a little bit. The Twins can’t strike out many, leaving Garcia open to hard hits. An excellent example of this is what happened against the Blue Jays. Garcia allowed five earned runs in five innings. The main reason for this? The Blue Jays rank second in the MLB in hard hit rate. They make good contact, putting the ball into play in difficult places. The Twins aren’t far behind them, in sixth place. I think a similar scenario could play out today.
Visiting my projections for this one, I see the value of this game close to a coin toss. Given my personal preference for Winder, I think the Twins have even more of an advantage. So, I have to take the extra money from the Twins here.
Prediction: Twins Money Line (+120 in FanDuel)
Covers MLB betting analysis
We have excellent value in the Under today, and I’ll happily move on. But then again, I think this is another situation where the oddsmakers haven’t fully accounted for Winder yet.
Forgetting pitching matchups here, let’s acknowledge a few trends:
- The Under is 5-0 in the Astros’ last five against the American League Central.
- The Under is 5-0 in the Astros’ last five games against a starter with a WHIP below 1.15.
- The Under is 7-2-1 in the last ten meetings between these two teams and 5-1 in the previous six meetings in Minnesota.
I’m usually not the biggest trend bettor in any sport. But, sometimes, as a handicap, the best we can do is to recognize everything that is in front of us and not have tunnel vision in a way of thinking. I like both pitching matchups today. Taking too much into trends only furthers that claim.
Is there something else that plays in our favor? Both bullpens are among the best in baseball. So far this young season, both teams have bullpens with a Top 5 ERA in baseball. That’s a nice cherry on top in case we need it.
Taking a look at my projections for this one, I see that seven total races is the most typical combined number of races. I also see this game coming in under the posted total of 8.5 a little over 70% of the time. That is a very good advantage. So, I’ll take the Under.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
I’ve talked about how high I am with Twins rookie Josh Winder throughout this article. I’ve even gone to make a future bet on him to win the American League Rookie of the Year award. So I’m looking for a place to take advantage of it in a market where I think it’s once again being undervalued. So, I’ll use it for my best bet.
Let’s continue with Winder Under 4.5 hits for more money, which is available on FanDuel.
We have a few things working in our favor with this bet. I’ve already talked about most of these, I kind of like the general matchup here. But then again, none of these Astros players have faced Winder before. Due to his great breaking pitch approach, I think it will take most hitters a while to get used to him. He may only see this lineup twice.
Winder has yet to give up more than four hits so far this season. He accomplished that feat while watching the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox, two teams that can really shine a light on you if you’re not at your best. Minnesota has done an excellent job protecting him but giving him quick starts. I really like the matchup here for him, but I don’t think he’ll last long enough to allow that many hits, even if he gets into trouble. So I’ll gladly grab the extra money here.
Choose: Josh Winder Under 4.5 hits allowed (+116 in FanDuel)
MLB mixed betting
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