Angus Reid Poll | Canadians fear a Trump victory

(Ottawa) On the first day of the Republican Party nomination race, a poll shows that a majority of Canadians fear the economic, political and military consequences of a Donald Trump victory in the November presidential election.

The fear of a return to the White House of the billionaire businessman is even more pronounced in Quebec than in the rest of the country, according to a survey conducted by the Angus Reid Institute firm among 1,510 respondents from 9 to 11 January.

Concerns are such that about two-thirds of Canadians (64%) believe that American democracy may not survive four more years of Donald Trump in power. Only 28% of respondents disagree with this statement, while 8% say they have no opinion.

At the same time, almost half of Canadians (49%) believe that the United States is on the path to sinking into an authoritarian regime. Only 26% think the opposite and a quarter of respondents say they don’t know.

No wonder, therefore, that a significant proportion of Canadians (64%) believe that the re-election of Democratic President Joe Biden would be the best scenario for the good of Canadian-American relations as a whole.

In Quebec, the proportion of people who believe that a Biden victory would be beneficial in all respects for relations between Canada and the United States even climbs to 72%.

Canceled Keystone XL project influences Western Canada

On the other hand, this feeling is less present in Alberta (47%) and Saskatchewan (47%). In these two western provinces, people seem to hold it against President Joe Biden who, during the first days of his administration, canceled the construction project for the Keystone XL oil pipeline, which was to extend over nearly 1,900 km and connecting the town of Hardisty, near Edmonton, to Steele City, Nebraska.


The fact remains that a majority of Canadians believe that a Biden victory would be better for peace and security in the world (60%), the maintenance of military agreements between Canada and the United States (57%) and the health of the Canadian economy (53%). Convictions are less strong when it comes to security along the Canada-US border (48%) or even Canada’s reputation on the international scene (48%) if Joe Biden is re-elected. But on all fronts, his rating is better than that of Donald Trump in the eyes of Canadians.


US President Joe Biden on Monday in Philadelphia

Joined by The Press, the president of the Angus Reid Institute firm, Sachi Kurl, affirmed that these results demonstrate without a shadow of a doubt that Canadians fear a return to power by Donald Trump. If in 2016 several of them believed that the Republican candidate would never do half of what he said, this is not the case in 2024.

At the time, it was thought that he didn’t really believe what he was saying. But today, having seen Trump’s first term, Canadians are fully aware of what he is capable of.

Sachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute

“Canadians are quite worried about the future of democracy in the United States if Donald Trump wins. They don’t believe American institutions are strong enough to withstand another Donald Trump presidency. It’s not nothing. And this extends to the electoral system,” she stressed.

Trump appeals to a segment of the conservative electorate

Mme Kurl also noted, by conducting this survey, that Donald Trump succeeded in galvanizing a segment of the conservative electorate in Canada. “Voters who are on the right tend to be happy with the possibility of another Trump administration,” she noted.

Many Canadians also fear for the future of Canada’s main trading partner if Trump wins. According to them, the United States will suffer even more. Indeed, three in five people (62%) think that America will be “much worse” if Trump wins the 2024 presidential election. But only one in five (22%) are not agreement and argues that the situation in the United States will improve if the former president returns to power.

This probe also demonstrates that Joe Biden, who made an official visit to Ottawa in March 2023, is not a most inspiring candidate for Canadians. Indeed, if he wins, 34% of Canadians believe it will be better for the United States and 28% believe the opposite, while 33% support the idea that it will have no effect.


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