“Five reasons why herd immunity [o colectiva] Covid is probably impossible ”(Five reasons why covid herd immunity is probably impossible) is the title of an article by the American science journalist Christie Aschwanden that was published last March in the highly prestigious British magazine Nature (591, 520-522 ( 2021)).
The subtitle of the article is “Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold to beat Covid-19 appears to be out of reach.”
The author explains that “most estimates had placed the threshold at 60-70% of the population obtaining immunity, either through vaccination or exposure to the virus. But as the pandemic enters its second year, thinking has started to change. In February, independent data scientist Youyang Gu changed the name of his popular Covid-19 forecasting model from ‘Path to immunity’ to ‘Path to normal’. He said that reaching a herd immunity threshold was unlikely due to factors such as hesitancy to get vaccinated, the emergence of new variants and the delay in the arrival of vaccines for children. “
Another opinion noted in the text is that of Shweta Bansal, a mathematical biologist at Georgetown University in Washington DC, who states that “Herd immunity is only relevant if we have a vaccine that blocks transmission. If we don’t have it, then the only way to get herd immunity in the population is by giving everyone the vaccine. “
The fact that vaccination levels vary so widely from country to country also prevents the herd effect from being achieved, according to Matt Ferrari, an epidemiologist at the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University. He believes that, theoretically at least, a perfectly coordinated global campaign could have ended Covid-19 “but in reality it is highly unlikely that we will achieve it on a global scale.”
For example, until yesterday in only 44 of the 193 member countries of the United Nations (UN) and in two territories (North Cyprus and Macao) the goal of vaccinating 70% of the population with two doses had been reached. older than 18 years-old. In 14 more countries and territories, the goal will be reached within the next 30 days. In 12 it will be reached within 30 to 90 days. In seven more between 90 and 120 days. In all other countries and territories it will take more than 120 days and in some cases even years.
According to the current volume of vaccines applied, Mexico will achieve 70% until next August 4, that is, in 245 days, much later than other countries of emerging economies. Moreover, among these countries, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Greece, Hungary, Israel and Malaysia have already reached the goal.
Although the pandemic continues, because the new Omicron variant is highly contagious and that 50% of those over 18 have not been vaccinated, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador presided over an event that he irresponsibly convened in the Zócalo of CDMX and where no mask or healthy distance was required. All to read one more report where he repeated more than he always says. His ego was stronger than his supposed concern for the people.
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Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx