Since August, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has asked the Senate of the Republic to withdraw the nomination of Arturo Herrera Gutiérrez to join the Governing Board of Banco de México, but just a week ago he notified the former Secretary of the Treasury of his decision.
This was confirmed separately by the leader of Morena’s bench in the Senate, Ricardo Monreal, and Arturo Herrera himself.
At noon, Senator Monreal explained to a group of reporters that the Executive withdrew (Herrera’s) appointment as a member of the Banxico Governing Board since August, and that in the Senate, they did nothing else, “other than accept it.” .
About three hours later, the former Secretary of the Treasury confirmed on his official Twitter account @ArturoHerrera_G: “Indeed, the president informed me a week ago that he had decided to reconsider my appointment as head of Banco de México.”
Investment strategists agreed in assuming that the possible candidates that could be nominated are the sisters Raquel and Lucía Buenrostro, a head of the Tax Administration Service and the other vice-president of the National Banking and Securities Commission; the Undersecretary of Finance, Gabriel Yorio, or the deputy governors Jonathan Heath and Gerardo Esquivel.
Citibanamex analysts consider that the worst scenario would be that AMLO names someone unknown and inexperienced but with strong ties to him.
They wait for a proposal
For his part, Ricardo Monreal said that the Senate is waiting for the new proposal from the head of the Federal Executive for its relief and ratification or rejection, if applicable.
At the moment, he explained, there is no matter to process the aforementioned appointment, which is urgent because on December 31, Alejandro Díaz de León will conclude his post as governor of Banxico.
The Zacatecan senator did not rule out, however, that the President decides to insist on proposing Herrera, whom he described as “an adequate profile for Banxico.”
It was on June 9 when López Obrador announced that he would propose the former Secretary of the Treasury to occupy the position of governor of the Bank of Mexico in place of Alejandro Díaz de León.
At that time, the Chief Executive explained that he did not want to ratify it at the head of the central bank, because he wants in that position “an economist with a social dimension, very in favor of moral economics.”
Buenrostro and his financial experience
In this regard, Marco Oviedo, who has been part of different investment banks, explained that the best scenario would be for the decision to opt for Lucía Buenrostro, or for either of the two deputy governors, Jonathan Heath or Gerardo Esquivel.
Buenrostro, without having extensive knowledge of monetary policy, has experience in financial regulation, and will strengthen the performance of the Board, he said. Since the departure of Roberto del Cueto, there has not been a member of the collegiate body with these characteristics.
The side that causes a bit of concern about it, is in a couple of messages that it published on twitter in December of last year, when it considered that there is a “dogma in the independence of the central bank” that assumes that price stability favors that markets find their natural rate of employment.
Regulatory changes worry
Meanwhile, Joel Virgen, strategist for the specialized video blog Out of the Box Economics, commented that the priority for global investors is that the nomination provides a perception of stability in the handling of monetary policy and respect for the autonomy of the central bank.
For the independent strategist, a possible change in the law that gives the Bank of Mexico a double mandate in this administration, or that opens the door to some type of facility for loans to the government or the use of international reserves, would be much more worrying.
From Hacienda to Banxico
Economists in the economic research area at Citibanamex consider that the nomination of the current Head of the SAT, Raquel Buenrostro or the Undersecretary of Finance is possible.
Joel Virgen explained that if one of the Treasury officials took over, the experience of Agustín Carstens and Guillermo Ortiz would be replicated. Both former central bankers came from the Treasury to Banxico and upon taking office, they assumed responsibility for the fulfillment of Banxico’s single mandate.
The economist Marco Oviedo comments that Herrera’s future could be defined outside of economic institutions, in a political sphere.
The interesting thing would be to know the reasons that led to the change in the decision of President López Obrador, who had moved forward seven months to the end of Díaz de León’s term, by publicly announcing that his nominee would be, at that time, still Secretary of the Treasury .