AMLO in shield mode

The President begins his fourth year in office with a clear line of action: shielding. He knows that he will find an increasingly adverse environment for his initiatives and is in a hurry to build a scaffolding that ensures he perpetuates his legacy and prevents conservatives – or a less convinced Morerenist – from destroying it.

The presidential stage has been clouded. He himself unleashed the passions of the succession that have Morena’s candidates fighting for spaces in the media that the president himself lacks. With the new composition of Congress, the opposition feels empowered and has a veto capacity; negotiation is required. Deep down, the United States and Canada express concern and rejection of Mexican government policies, be they energy or the fight against organized crime.

The president’s “shielding” operation implies, at least, working on four fronts: the reconfiguration of his inner circle, the control of institutions, the radicalization of discourse and the occupation of public space.

1. The circle of loyalists: Since the beginning of his government, the president has favored loyalty over capacity. His promise to have the best cabinet in Mexico since Benito Juárez was never fulfilled; calling his cabinet mediocre is a lot. With the challenges of the end of the six-year term, AMLO has decided to surround himself with stalwarts such as Adán Augusto Hernández, Pablo Gómez and María Estela Ríos. The president closes the circle and the tendency to listen to himself will sharpen.
2. Related institutions: the president will increase his attack on independent institutions and will promote actions that allow him to control them. This explains his desire to reform the INE, his constant attacks on Inai, the weakening of commissions (CRE, IFT, CNH), the replacement of Arturo Herrera by Victoria Rodríguez Ceja as Governor of the Bank of Mexico, the qualification of public works as of “national security” and even the stalking of academic institutions such as ITAM and UNAM. The intention is to ensure that bodies and institutions that depend on the public purse defend the Fourth Transformation and give ideological support to the changes promoted by the government. “I do not pay to be beaten,” he will say.
3. Siege speech: The table is set for the president to develop a campaign against his adversaries: the approval of the electricity reform, the revocation of the mandate, the inauguration of the Felipe Ángeles airport and any obstacles that arise to advance in his transformational project, will feed the divisive presidential speech. It has clear dates: IAFA on March 21 and revocation of the mandate on April 10. The uncertainty around the voting date of the electricity reform benefits the president because it will keep businessmen on edge. We will see a refined version of the presidential speech against his adversaries and the inactivity of business organizations (CCE, COPARMEX, etc.) makes the job easier.
4. Domain of public space: the end of the pandemic – if Ómicron does not spoil it – excites the President. You want to fill positions, hug people, mobilize allies. When he opposed Peña Nieto’s energy reform, he “lacked the people” and wants to show that he already has it. Survey that is not reflected in the street is not worth; will make it count 60% popularity with social mobilization. That is why he wants to fill the zócalo on December 1 and take to the streets in favor of the electrical reform. To besiege the Chamber of Deputies or the Senate in the days of electric voting would be the dream of the president-social activist. What began in 1996 with the blockade of oil wells in Tabasco would close its circle 25 years later in Congress.

For the president, 2022 is an exciting year. It has clearly defined causes and dates and the freedom to walk through streets and squares, to let itself be loved and to feed on the affection of the people. With his cunning, he will know how to blame the pandemic, neoliberalism and his adversaries, for the poor economic growth, inflation and the blockades to his transformation agenda. That ability has been directly proportional to the inability of opposition parties and businessmen to articulate a message that makes the common citizen question the president’s arguments.

The stakes are high in 2022. The president knows this and is preparing. On December 1, before a full zócalo, the president will rehearse the shielding speech that will dominate the rest of his six-year term. A López Obrador in a hurry and on the move, meeting new squares and new streets.

* Antonio Ocaranza Fernández is CEO of OCA Reputación.

Twitter: @aocaranza