The next call that AMLO and Biden will hold next Friday will take place within the framework of a toxic geopolitics that spreads its poison.
Globalization has become the new battlefield and on the high seas, the only land in sight is that of the next lost decade.
Hence the global framework makes this a tough call. Because despite the fact that our president has declared that he does not know the purpose, the White House published in a statement that the central issues will revolve around the joint vision that North America must have before the next Summit of the Americas, cooperation on migration issues , joint efforts to promote development in Central America, competitiveness, economic growth, security, energy, and economic cooperation.
That’s where the problems start.
The toxic geopolitics resulting from a long pandemic, rising interest rates, skyrocketing inflation, an absurd war in Ukraine, and rushed political times, tell us about a complicated period that will be marked by slow economic growth, recurrent financial crises , and social instability.
Based on the latest “World Economic Outlook” report, the IMF projects global growth to slow from an estimated 6.1% for 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023. Beyond 2023, global growth would slow to around 3.3% in the medium term. War-induced higher commodity prices and amplifying price pressures have translated into projected 2022 inflation of 5.7% in advanced economies and 8.7% in emerging market and developing economies.
A scenario that could be further complicated by geopolitical tensions derived from the rise of national self-sufficiency campaigns and mistrust in supply chains, which could continue to reduce trade flows.
Translating the latter, in a greater number of poor people who will decide whether to concentrate their energies on overthrowing a government, or migrating north.
Latin America is experiencing a record migratory flow to the United States, whose Customs and Border Protection (CBP) office detected more than 1.7 million undocumented immigrants on the border with Mexico in fiscal year 2021, which ended on September 30.
In 2022 this has not improved and more than 115,000 migrants have been intercepted in Mexico so far this year. To which must be added the 5,688 from 40 countries that were detained in three days, from April 17 to 21, where Honduras, Cuba, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Colombia appeared with the largest number of migrants.
Meanwhile, the number of refugee claimants in Mexico grew 32% in the first quarter of this year. In a context in which the Mexican economy is shrinking and has gone from 15th to 17th place worldwide.
The IMF estimates that the Mexican economy will be worth one trillion 380 billion dollars next year, according to the estimates of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that it presented last week. Reality that ultimately will mean that while some fight to stay here, others decide to leave. As has been happening in the current fiscal year, with Mexicans who have been detained trying to cross into the United States, representing an increase of 268% in the current fiscal year, compared to 2019.
And as if that were not enough, to the latter we must add Donald Trump’s desire to feel like president, when he is not even a candidate yet.
It seems that there is plenty of poison in geopolitical terms and this makes Biden right. “They have to talk.”
Last one out, turn off the light.
Twitter: @HenaroStephanie
Geopolitics teacher
Last one out turn off the light
Mexican analyst and commentator. She studied international relations at the Tecnológico de Monterrey CCM and at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris (Sciences-Po). She has a specialization in Russian foreign policy from MGIMO in Moscow and a master’s degree in Geopolitics, Territory and Security from King’s College London in England.