A partial is like tea leaves

The by-election in Marie-Victorin will take place on April 11. Seeking to take advantage of the popularity of his government and the deconfinement already underway in Quebec, François Legault is of course betting on a CAQ victory.

Counting on his candidate Pierre Nantel and the riding’s PQ past, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the Parti Québécois, is praying for a victory capable of making him forget the decline of his party that has been under way for ages.

For the other candidates, including the very colorful antivax Anne Casabonne of Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party of Quebec, we will above all seek to keep our heads above water.

Quite frankly, trying too hard to see in a partial the announcement of the results of an upcoming general election can be entertaining.

But most of the time, it’s as accurate a tool for predicting the results of an upcoming general election as reading tea leaves to know whether or not you’ll soon meet the love of your life…


It is true that the election of the caquiste Geneviève Guilbault in 2017 in Louis-Hébert, during a partial, had preceded the victory of the troops of François Legault on the evening of October 1, 2018. However, even if she had lost, nothing wouldn’t have prevented things from happening.

In most cases, a by-election is above all a political microclimate in itself. National issues matter, but local issues and the notoriety (or not) of the candidates, even more so.

It even happens that a passing wind favors a party which, in general, will have to be content with a disappointing result. One example among many. In 2002, the Action Démocratique du Québec won the partials by magic. In the 2003 election, however, she won only 18% of the vote.

In Marie-Victorin, even in the event of a victory for Pierre Nantel, who would dare to conclude then that the Parti Québécois was miraculously resurrected en route to the general election on October 3? Ask the question, as they say.

In fact, when they are so close to a general, the partials are mainly used to break in the electoral machines of each party. Nothing too spectacular. Unless, of course, you are a fan of tea leaves…


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