In just two decades the Arctic It will cease to be the imposing frozen continent that it is today, and it will also cease to be an insurmountable barrier to navigation. Climate models show that large parts of the Arctic will lose their annual ice cover, in favor of water, which will gain space. These sudden changes will threaten the lives of many animal and plant species, but they will also have positive consequences in other areas, since a navigable arctic It will allow the opening of new maritime trade routes.
“There is no scenario in which the melting of the Arctic is good news,” says the lead author of the study and a climatologist at Brown University, Amanda Lynch. However, as she points out, “the unfortunate reality” is that the ice is already withdrawing from the Arctic, opening up new trade routes, which is why Lynch believes that It is time to “reflect on its legal, environmental and geopolitical implications & rdquor ;.
In fact, this same year a Russian cargo ship from the Sovcomflot shipping company managed to become the first to sail through previously frozen areas. The ship had departed from the port of Sabetta (Russia) on January 5 and completed the section reaching the city of Jiangsu (China) on January 27, to return to the Russian town on February 7, sailing the entire North Sea successfully, according to a company statement issued when the route was completed.
A toll has to be paid to Russia, for now
The modification that the frozen landscape is going to undergo has enough potential to open up new shorter maritime routes and thus reduce the carbon footprint of freight transport. So far, many of the ships that want to travel the Northern Sea Route are required to pay a toll to Russia.
To establish this legislation, Russia avails itself of article 234 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which establishes that countries whose coasts are close to the Arctic maritime routes have the capacity to regulate the maritime traffic of the route, provided that the area remains covered with ice most of the year.
Taking advantage of this contingency, the country not only charges a tribute when passing through these waters, but also requires sailors to plan prior to the trip. With these strict requirements, it is not surprising that many shipping companies prefer to use the Suez and Panama Canals. to move their goods, even if they are longer routes.
But Russian hegemony could put an end to this thaw. “I’m sure the Russians will continue to invoke Section 234, which they will try to back up with their power,” said Charles Norchi, director of the Maine Center for Ocean and Coastal Law. “But they will be questioned by the international community, because article 234 will cease to apply if there is no ice-covered area for most of the year”, highlights.
The end of the control of this country will also have to do with the area that is won over to the ice. It is likely that the melting will free up an area that would be considered international waters, therefore, if it happened, “Russia could not do much & rdquor ;.
Carbon emissions from maritime traffic will be reduced
The Arctic routes are between 30 and 50% shorter than those of the Suez Canal or the Panama Canal. In this way, the thaw will help reduce the time it takes to complete the same route by 14 or 20 days. This means that, in the event that this melting happens as the climate models are contemplating, shipping companies will reduce their carbon footprint by 24%, while saving time and money.
“The diversification of trade routes, especially in regard to new routes that cannot be blocked, because they are not channels, gives maritime trade a capacity for recovery”, highlights, for her part, the climatologist Amanda Lynch, main author of the article published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The countries took ten years to agree to establish the Law of the Sea, for this reason, scientists argue that it is time to consider this possibility with a view to regulating this new space.
“Being aware of these changes that are coming could avoid crises when the problem arises and must be resolved quickly, which almost never works out,” insists Lynch, who defends that “preparing international agreements with some foresight and deliberation is undoubtedly a best way to do it”.
Reference Study: Link: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.220272011
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