A DEAD HEAT: Plante, Coderre in statistical tie: survey

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It remains a draw in the race to become Montreal’s next mayor, according to a new Montréal Léger-Montreal Gazette-Journal poll.

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The poll places Valérie Plante and Denis Coderre tied for voting intentions at 36 percent, and Balarama Holness could play the role of spoiler.

Holness has 12 percent support among those surveyed, while six percent will support a candidate other than the three mentioned above. Nine percent of those surveyed were undecided.

The poll echoes one published by Radio-Canada last week (conducted by CROP), and another conducted by Léger to Le Devoir last month . However, there were far fewer undecided respondents. Radio-Canada’s poll was 27 percent undecided.

“It is again the statistical link that we saw in the survey we did to Le Devoir last month ”Said Christian Bourque, executive vice president of Léger.

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Plante is most popular with voters ages 18 to 34. But only half of those in that age group say they will surely vote, compared with more than two-thirds in older age groups.

Plante has more support among Francophone voters, 48 ​​percent, compared to 38 percent for Coderre and 5 percent for Holness.

Among the 90 Anglophones surveyed, Coderre has 38% support, compared to 28% for Plante and 14% for Holness.

Bourque said that’s significant because it shows that while Holness’s party has its origins in Projet Montréal, her candidacy appears to be removing English-speaking support for Coderre, traditionally one of her strongest support groups. Holness, who has vowed to ask Montréal if they want a referendum on whether the city should be designated bilingual, has the support of 21 percent of allophones, who are nearly tied with Plante at 25 percent.

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“Right now, what Mr. Holness is getting in terms of support is potentially hurting Mr. Coderre in some way,” Bourque said.

Bourque said that with a tie in voters’ intentions, the key to winning will be getting the majority of supporters to go to the polls.

In that regard, Coderre has the upper hand, with 71 percent of those who support the former mayor saying they are likely to vote, compared to 65 percent among Plante’s supporters.

A total of 63 percent of those polled said they would vote on November 7. But Bourque cautioned that those figures are misleading.

“Of the people who said they would go to vote, some lie, because we know that in municipal elections the turnout is never that high,” he said.

Support for Holness may be soft, so it remains to be seen how the results will look on November 7.

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“As we move into voting day, some Holness supporters may return to Valérie Plante or Denis Coderre. It will surely be soft support, ”Bourque said.

However, he said it is difficult to say which candidate would benefit the most from the defection of Holness supporters.

“It has become a mystery in this campaign,” Bourque said.

Bourque believes the data shows that Holness would retain the support he has if he became a single-issue candidate, with 47 respondents viewing him as the best advocate for Anglophones, compared to Coderre’s 18 percent and 10 percent of Plante.

Coderre was seen as the most suitable candidate to guide the city out of the pandemic, with 35 percent compared to 32 percent for Plante and eight percent for Holness. However, 25% of those surveyed were undecided on that question. Bourque said that means that if a candidate can be considered more competent to guide the city out of the pandemic, it could see an increase in polls.

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Geographically, those in the west and east of the city favor Coderre, while those in the center and periphery are in favor of Plante.

Among the top issues identified by voters are housing, the environment, the economy, and gun control / police funding.

The survey found that Plante had a 46 percent satisfaction rate among those surveyed, while 49 percent said they disapproved of the work he was doing.

Bourque said that support at that level could point to reelection, as the Trudeau administration had a lower level of satisfaction than before he was reelected in federal elections last month.

“This support is not very good, but it is certainly not bad for the prospects of this melee race,” Bourque said.

The survey was conducted with 600 people who responded to an online questionnaire between October 21 and 26. Although the results are weighted to reflect the characteristics of the city’s population, a margin of error could not be calculated because the results are based on online responses.

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