The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has triggered uncertainty, which is always an enemy when making important spending and investment decisions. Furthermore, the brutal inflation escalation it is reducing the purchasing power of economic agents. But despite this scenario, the 80% of Catalan businessmen expect to achieve a increase in your turnover this year and almost half, 47%, expect to do it above 5%, according to a survey carried out by KPMG with the collaboration of the CEOE.
The report is based on two waves of interviews, the first carried out between December and February, and therefore prior to the war, and the second carried out between April and May. Curiously, between the first and the second round, both those who watched the economic situation of the moment as good (from 21% to 24%) as those who considered it bad or very bad (from 13% to 17%). In what yes there was coincidence is in the rise of pessimism: Those who predicted a worsening of the economy in the next 12 months increased (from 14% to 39%) and those who predicted an improvement plummeted (from 55% to 28%).
One in five Catalan businessmen, in fact, claims to have seen affected by sanctions imposed on the Russian Government and the counter-sanctions decreed by it. Those that would have caused a greater effect are financial nature: the closure of access to the Swift international payment platform, the ban on carrying out transactions with four Russian banks and the restrictions imposed by the Putin regime on transfers of funds abroad. To a lesser extent, other damages were cited, such as the sale of real estate assets or the closure of activity in Russia.
62% of the Catalan businessmen surveyed ask the central government to take measures to mitigate the impact of inflation on the economy, which for 75% is the main threat to GDP. In addition, 42% ask to promote digital and sustainable transformation, and 32% consider structural reforms necessary. In tax matter18% of those surveyed consider that the tax increase is one of the main threats to the Spanish economy in the next 12 months.
More income and investment
Despite the deterioration of the situation and the increase in uncertainty, Catalan businessmen are mostly optimistic about the immediate future your business, although this positive view has been moderated slightly by the invasion. Thus, the 80% of entrepreneurs who foresee an increase in their income this year is a percentage seven percentage points lower than what was expected before the war.
The percentage of entrepreneurs who plan increase your investments remained practically stable at 64%. And refering to corporate operations, most businessmen have maintained their plans despite the invasion. 27% plan to make purchases, 36% expect to close alliances and 12% predict mergers.
Employment and telecommuting
Instead, the war made a relevant percentage of businessmen decide to step on the brake on hiring of new employees. Those who plan to increase their templates have dropped from 58% to 48%, although those who plan to reduce them have also decreased from 12% to 9%. Likewise, the percentage of entrepreneurs who expect to increase their internationalization in the next 12 months has dropped, from 45% to 36%.
Within the workplace, only 16% of Catalan respondents indicate that their employees do not telework any day. In most companies, 49%, employees have a mixed system, with a greater weight of face-to-face work (three or more days), while in another 17% the mixed system has more remote work, and in a 15% is balanced. Only 3% of employers maintain a system in which work is exclusively remote.