76ers vs Heat Odds, Picks & Predictions Tonight – NBA Playoff Game 1

After a couple of exciting games yesterday, the NBA playoffs resume in the Eastern Conference on Monday, May 2 with an intriguing clash between the injured Philadelphia 76ers and the ruthless Miami Heat.

Our NBA betting picks and predictions attempt to answer the biggest question of Game 1 and possibly beyond: can James Harden step up without Joel Embiid?

Odds 76ers vs Heat

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each regulated bookmaker betting market.

The lines have seen a lot of movement for the 76ers’ Game 1 against the Heat after Miami opened with a 4-point lead that went up -7.5 following the news of Embiid’s injury. The total has seen an increase from a low of 207.5 to 208.5 at the time of writing.

Use the live odds widget above to keep track of any future line moves up to kickoff time, and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before you bet to ensure you get the best number.

76ers vs. Heat Tips & Predictions

Predictions made on 5/1/2022 at 9:05 pm ET.
Click on each prediction to access the full analysis.

76ers vs Heat game information

• Location: FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
• Date: Monday, May 2, 2022
• alert to: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time
• TELEVISION: TNT

76ers vs Heat series odds

76ers: +270.
Heat: -350.

76ers vs Heat Betting Preview

key injuries

76ers: Joel Embiid C (Out).
Heat: Kyle Lowry PG (Out), Jimmy Butler PF (Questionable), PJ Tucker SF (Questionable), Max Strus PG (Questionable), Tyler Herro SG (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The 76ers are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games playing on three or more days’ rest. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Heat.

76ers vs Heat picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite selection in all markets.

Propagation Analysis

The news that Joel Embiid suffered a concussion and orbital fracture in Philadelphia’s closing game against the Toronto Raptors was completely disheartening. The Harden-Embiid pick-and-roll has been the deadliest play in the NBA since the trade deadline, and watching Erik Spoelstra and the Miami Heat attempt to solve that puzzle promised to be one of the most intriguing games in the Second Division game. round.

All of that will have to wait with Embiid out for at least the first two games. Instead, a new story emerges. Can James Harden, once the greatest isolated scorer in the NBA, turn back the clock and lead the 76ers to an upset victory in Game 1?

To further complicate matters, the Heat released an injury update on Sunday that left six players questionable for Monday, including Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and PJ Tucker. Given that Miami last played Tuesday, I’d expect most of that group to prepare, but they certainly don’t have Kyle Lowry, who continues to lose time due to his troubling hamstring injury.

Many are billing this as a step up for the Heat. Ultimately, it all comes back to Harden’s game. What does this 76ers team look like without Embiid? A cursory glance doesn’t look promising: The Sixers are a staggering -11.6 when Harden is on the floor and Embiid is off. clean the glass. But the sample is minuscule and mostly includes a healthy dose of DeAndre Jordan. The 76ers’ hope could be that the team has a +45.9 in 35 playoff possessions with Harden, Green, Harris, Maxey and Reed combined.

Harden’s usage in 21 games in Philly has been 30%, a far cry from his Houston Rockets peak of 43.9% and still a significant decrease from his time in Brooklyn, which was around 34%. While that Houston level is gone for good, the Sixers will need Harden to threaten 35% usage with Embiid out to stand a chance.

What happens outside of Harden? Obviously, Maxey must add to his already outstanding playoff resume and Tobias Harris will need to abuse mismatches on the interior. They will have some success. But the most glaring problem is the quality of Embiid’s immediate replacements, as the 76ers’ backup center rotation is the worst of any contending team. If Jordan is dusted off to play real minutes, the Heat are going to gut him in space. He just has no mobility left.

With so many questionable players, the Heat are hard to gauge. Butler is dealing with some knee issues, but his average stat line against Atlanta (30.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists on 54.3% shooting) was somewhat outrageous. The Heat are the best switch defense in the NBA outside of Boston, forcing opposing teams to take 3-pointers while denying the rim, much like the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. Miami is one of the most connected defenses in the NBA, and their ability to absolutely throttle Atlanta in Round 1 was impressive.

Without Embiid, the Heat will emphasize playing the inside out. But they’re not particularly well prepared to do so unless Bam Adebayo steps up his offense, which he didn’t seem willing to do with a similar matchup advantage against Atlanta.

A 7.5-point differential is a bit steep given all the uncertainty in the Heat’s lineup, and the 76ers are 5-0 against the differential in their last five games playing on three or more days’ rest. A well-rested Harden is one who can turn back the clock, at least for one night, and help the 76ers cover in Game 1.

Prediction: 76ers +7.5 (-111 Betway)

Over/Under Analysis

Miami’s five games against the Hawks in the first round were inferior, so a good starting point is to consider how similar a Harden-led Sixers offense will be to a Trae-led Hawks offense.

Both are heliocentric, pick-and-roll-helium offenses. Both players rely on a pretty tough diet of 3-point shooting combined with breaking the paint and creating 3-pointers in the corners. Harden’s points per shot attempt and assist rate are in the 94th percentile among point guards, marks that are only slightly below Young’s in both respects. clean the glass. But there is a key difference.

Harden is drawing fouls at a career-best rate of 22.8% of his possessions as a Sixer, so he’s making up for it. what he has lost as a finisher taking his dirty bait technique to new levels. It may not be aesthetically pleasing, but it’s very impressive given his physical decline.

Then there’s Trae, who dropped from a 14.5% foul rate last year to 9.1% this year under the new rules. This is the definitive difference in the way he plays. As fouling got harder, Trae leaned into other aspects of his game. Harden, faced with the same problem, just got better at fouling.

Heat players won’t be inclined to be as physical and practical with Harden because they’ll foul into oblivion. That extra breathing room means Harden will be able to break up the paint, find open shooters and keep the offense going to a point that Young couldn’t. Pace also favors the Over, as both teams are in the top 5 in transition frequency and the 76ers could play even faster without Embiid available.

Prediction: Over 208.5 (-111 Betway)

best bet

By now, it should be clear that I’m optimistic about Harden’s ability to score in this series, particularly in Game 1 without Kyle Lowry to follow his 94-foot dribble.

It’s all based on his usage seeing an expected increase in Embiid’s absence along with his all-time fouling ability. It wasn’t too long ago that getting value on such a low point total for Harden would have seemed crazy, and I like that he does it tonight.

Choose: Hardening Over 25.5 Points (+110 Caesars)