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The approval or failure of the double pulse for the accounts will have a full impact, for better or for worse, on the political board
The next month and a half will be decisive to know if the central and Catalan governments manage to approve their respective draft budgets. While ERC keeps the Executive of PSOE and United We Can in suspense, the CUP does the same with the coalition of Esquerra and Junts. The outcome of both pulses will have a full impact, for better or for worse, on the ailing political board, in addition to having endless effects on an economic level.
These would be five political consequences that would have the approval or the failure of the double budget negotiation.
Economic reconstruction
If one or the other budgets fail, the arrival of European reconstruction funds could be in jeopardy and complicate the comeback when all the light is not yet seen at the end of the Covid tunnel. Half of the 40,000 million in investments that the Government foresees and 40% of the increase in spending that the Generalitat estimates are supported in Europe. After the historical debacle of 10.8% last year, the EU has just cut the forecast for this year to 4.6%, which moves away from recovering the pre-pandemic level at least until 2023. The estimates of the different organisms and services of Public and private studies move between the levels of 5% and 7% this year, and between 5.2% and more than 8% next year.
Accounts are always the most important challenge for a government because it gives it at least one year of oxygen. In this case, the approval of the budgets would serve to reinforce the stability of two coalitions very accustomed to internal tension between partners. In this way, Sánchez and Aragonès could focus the energies of their governments in management discussions and in putting in place regulations and structural reforms that are crucial for Catalonia and Spain.
Autonomous financing
The shielding of public resources will be decisive to face another pending debate, very complex and that this legislature may not close: the reform of the autonomous financing system. Having guaranteed budgets, stability and European funds for the coming months ensures some time and solvency to facilitate the bobbin lace to satisfy all the communities in the distribution of the cake. The Generalitat, for the moment, is erased from the debate.
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The Sánchez and Aragonès teams are working with the objective of meeting the dialogue table again in January, but the technical negotiation advances with discretion, as well as the give and take in the Bilateral Commission. With both budgets in the bag, the two presidents can face with more expectations a forum from which Aragonès needs to get some revenue to put Junts against the sword and the wall, and with which Sánchez wants to convince that his bet was worth it.
Although 2022 is right now a year of electoral transition (only elections are held in Andalusia), the continuous convulsions on the political board may be accentuated if the lack of budgets aggravates the instability of governments. Passing the examination of the accounts would leave the parties more free hands to focus on the crucial 2023, in which municipal, regional and general elections will be chained. A horizon that will complicate the forging of alliances in the medium term.
Reference-www.elperiodico.com