In order for there to be 2024, the morenistas —both the radicals and the moderates— must successfully cross customs that just within a month will accredit the popular consultation on a hypothetical, although unlikely, Revocation of the Mandate of Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
About the result, no one doubts. The levels of presidential approval are a mirage that could become risky if those percentages are misinterpreted. A block of governors emanating from the Fourth Transformation have received an irrefutable mandate. His future will depend on the fulfillment of the goals… and the future of the succession.
In the consultation organized by the INE, the National Palace has formulated scenarios that are difficult to achieve. Due to the budgetary limitations of the electoral authority, only 67,000 voting centers will work in the 300 electoral districts, barely half of the boxes that are enabled every three years in federal elections.
Unprecedented, this type of exercise has been equated with the last constitutional elections in which Morena has appeared on the ballots. Abstentionism is the enemy.
The reference will not be the historic elections of 2018, but those of June 6 of last year, where the participation at the national level was 52.67% of 93.3 million citizens registered on the electoral roll. Getting 45 million to go to the voting centers nine months later, without other concurrent elections, would seem like an impossible mission for Morena and her allies.
The partisan structure agglutinated around Mario Delgado is evidently limited to face this challenge. And that is why the Morenoite governors have taken a step forward in the effort to involve federal parliamentarians and local deputies.
Exceeding the threshold of 40% attendance at the voting centers would essentially depend on simultaneous mobilization operations in twenty states in four of the five constituencies into which the country is electorally divided.
The exception in the II Circumscription, which groups seven states of the Center-Northeast. And it is that there, since the foundation of Morena, citizens have opted for other political-ideological proposals. In this cluster of states, Nuevo León stands out, although the recent votes in Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosí foreshadow a scenario of medium participation.
The Bajío does not open great expectations for the leftist forces either. Aguascalientes, Guanajuato and Querétaro are PAN strongholds, as is Yucatán, in the southeast. And among the morenistas of Jalisco, disunity has prevailed.
The 30 million votes won by AMLO in 2018 are unrepeatable. In 2021, Morena joined the PVEM in her cause, but could not exceed 20 million votes. Could you even match that figure, next April 10?
At least 10 million votes would be generated in Chiapas, CDMX, the State of Mexico, Jalisco, Oaxaca, Puebla and Veracruz.
The competitiveness of Morena in Tabasco, Tlaxcala, Quintana Roo, Oaxaca, Baja California, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Hidalgo and Guerrero —entities where two thirds of the voters have maintained their preference for the icing formation— is the most obvious bet… but also the most risky. In three of these entities there will be constitutional elections within three months.
If 20 million citizens come out to demonstrate on April 10, it would be a resounding success… except for those who know that 2022 will define the presidential succession.
Side effects
forgetful. Before the end of 2021, in the basements of the City Hall they began to explore options, in case Sandra Cuevas, the alliance mayor of Cuauhtémoc, had to leave her position, for whatever reason. Then they made amends with the worst of the scenarios: the budgetary insufficiency of the capital’s Electoral Institute, hanged by the republican austerity and other restrictions imposed by the local deputies. If for the Revocation of Mandate there are no resources, less for an extraordinary election!
Journalist
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Journalist and columnist for El Economista, author of Doña Perpetua: Elba Esther Gordillo’s power and opulence. Elba Esther Gordillo against the SEP.