Philippe J. Fournier: The current dominance of the CAQ, in practically all demographic segments of the electorate, is unprecedented in recent times in Quebec.
We are less than a year away from the next Quebec general election, and according to recent survey data, never in the last 30 years has reelection in the province seemed so likely. Barring a historical turn of events or a major scandal, it seems that no other political party is in a position to unseat François Legault’s CAQ.
In fact, the latest Quebec survey conducted by Leger for The Montreal Diary measures the CAQ at 47 percent of voting intentions in Quebec, a monstrous 27-point lead over its closest rival, the Quebec Liberal Party (QLP). In a distant third place are Québec solidaire (QS) and Parti québécois (PQ) with 11% support each, while a new fifth player, Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party (similar to Maxime Bernier’s PPC at the provincial), rises to 8 percent. percent in the province, with support mainly concentrated in the Quebec City region.
Among French-speaking voters (who make up about 80 percent of Quebec voters), the CAQ advantage is even greater: François Legault’s party gets 54 percent of voting intentions. The opposition parties share only insignificant crumbs: 13% for the Parti québécois, 12% for the Québec solidaire and 10% for the Liberal Party.
The CAQ dominates virtually all demographic segments of the Quebec electorate. The CAQ leads by 29 points among men and 24 points among women. And while there is a statistical link between the CAQ (28 percent) and the QS (26 percent) among young voters ages 18 to 34, the CAQ crushes its rivals among older voters, with a 30 advantage. points between 35 to 54 years. and 35 points (!) among those over 55 years of age.
In the Montreal metropolitan area (Montreal Island, Laval and “the 450”), the CAQ has 41% support, compared to 28% for the QLP. In the Quebec City region, the CAQ dominates with 53 percent support, 35 points ahead of conservative Éric Duhaime, who ranks second with 18 percent in the region. In the rest of Quebec, the CAQ scores 52 percent, almost 40 points ahead of its rivals.
What explains the current domain of the CAQ? One of the most frequently asked questions in this type of survey measures satisfaction with the government. This data can tell us something about the potential for growth (or decline!) Of the competing parties. With 65 percent of those surveyed saying they are satisfied with the CWC governance, François Legault enjoys a degree of consensus that goes well beyond party lines. Consider the following figure:
Not only does the CAQ enjoy near unanimity among its own voters (97 percent satisfaction), but seven out of 10 PQ voters (69 percent) say they are satisfied with the CAQ government. Even among voters of the other opposition parties, the CAQ scores exceptionally well: 44 percent of Liberal voters and 41 percent of QS voters say they are satisfied with the government’s performance.
In addition, François Legault is seen as the best candidate for the post of prime minister of Quebec among all the leaders of the party, and by far. Consider the following table (taken directly from the Léger report):
Bad news for the Liberal Party: When asked which party leader would make the best prime minister, only 45 percent of Liberal voters choose QLP leader Dominique Anglade. Worst news for PQ leader Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon: Only 25 percent of PQ voters believe he is the best candidate for prime minister. In fact, PQ voters even prefer François Legault (38 percent) to the current PQ leader (25 percent). I am running through my memory and cannot recall a recent occasion when the voters of a major party in Quebec preferred the leader of another party to their own. In fact, Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon (3 percent) is even behind neophyte Éric Duhaime (6 percent) in this poll.
Obviously, such dominance in voting intentions also translates into a strong advantage in seat projections. According to the 338 Canada Quebec Model, the CAQ would win an average of 100 seats in the National Assembly if elections were held this week, or 24 more seats than it currently holds.
The QLP would be reduced to an average of just 18 seats in constituencies where many Anglophone and Allophone voters reside in the Montreal, Laval, Montérégie and Outaouais regions. Furthermore, the advantage of the CAQ among Francophones is such that some traditional liberal constituencies in Montreal could potentially change, including Anjou-Louis-Riel, Verdun, Maurice-Richard, and Marquette.
Québec solidaire would probably manage to keep its core of Montreal seating, but districts like Sherbrooke, Jean-Lesage and Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue, all won by QS in the 2018 election, could be at risk. Furthermore, the growing support for the CAQ in Montreal’s French-speaking districts, combined with the PQ’s fall from grace on the island, could mean that even Rosemont it may be up for grabs next year.
As for the Parti Québécois, it would remain with the leadership of Pascal Bérubé (former interim leader of PQ) Matane-Matapedia in the Bas-Saint-Laurent region (Lower Saint-Lawrence). However, the PQ remains competitive in other districts the party already has, including Joliette, Gaspé and Magdalen Islands.
In fact, the 338Canada has the projected CAQ of no fewer than 74 “safe” runs (runs with a 99.5 percent or more chance of winning). Thus, the CAQ has a set of secure constituencies higher than the threshold for a majority in the National Assembly, that is, 63 seats.
So who could stop the CAQ in 2022? Could the figures we are seeing now tip in favor of one of the opposition parties in less than a calendar year? You should never say never in Quebec politics, but the current dominance of the CAQ is unprecedented in recent times in Quebec. You have to go back to Robert Bourassa’s liberals in the mid-1980s to find similar figures. After winning 99 seats in 1985, the QLP was easily re-elected with 92 seats in 1989. Furthermore, the QLP had only one serious opponent in that election (Jacques Parizeau’s Parti Québécois), while today the CAQ faces opposition. Very divided, giving the CAQ a clear advantage in terms of seating.
At the risk of having to swallow these words in a few months, it appears that the worst of the pandemic is behind us and that Quebec has weathered the worst of the fourth wave that hit the Canadian prairies hard. Economic recovery will likely dominate the government’s agenda in 2022, which, in theory, should be in the hands of François Legault. So what could stop the CAQ? Given that complacency and arrogance can arise when a government feels too comfortable, perhaps the CAQ will be its worst enemy in the upcoming election year.
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Details of this projection are available in the 338 Canada Quebec page. You will find the 125 electoral district projections here, or use the regional links below:
Reference-www.macleans.ca