2022 will continue to be full of contrasts for different regions of the country: Bx +

As in this year, the outlook for 2022 will continue to be full of contrasts for the different regions of the country, derived from their productive vocations and how they have dodged the effects of the pandemic, reported Grupo Financiero Ve por Más.

Within the framework of the webinar Bx + trends: Beyond the reactivation, Alejandro Saldaña Brito, chief economist of the Financial Group Go for MoreHe explained that the entities, whose economic activities are oriented to services and tourism, will once again be the ones with the greatest lag.

Precisely because the mobility and because they still cannot recover from the first waves of infections of the new coronavirus.

“Entities such as Mexico City and Quintana Roo, which depend a lot on activity in the service sector, the one most affected by the pandemic, will continue to lag behind, ”he deepened.

Meanwhile, the states focused on industrial activities and that have a greater commercial relationship with the American Union they will continue to present encouraging projections and behaviors.

The above, in part, is the result of USA It is implementing a reactivation plan focused on boosting consumption, inventory replenishment and infrastructure.

“For those states exposed to the growth of the North American economy, mainly those located in the north and the Bajío, the outlook continues to be encouraging; for example in Baja California, Coahuila, Chihuahua, New Lion and Sonora with a vocation to export manufacturing, highlights the evolution in industries such as food, plastic, rubber, electronics and metal, “he said.

However, he specified that the possibility also arises that the industrial states experience a strong slowdown, which would last until mid-2022; “This derived from the lack of inputs and problems with supply chains.”

He noted that attention should be paid to states whose vocation is oriented towards oil mining since they are receiving greater investments to detonate their infrastructure.

“We have noticed a good performance in oil mining in Chiapas and Tabasco, in the latter, also construction has been relevant, which may be due to some infrastructure works launched in recent years “, he highlighted.

Fourth wave

Alejandro Saldana He announced that they also have contemplated that for December of this year and January 2022 a fourth wave of infections will be generated in the states of the country, but they estimate that its impact will not be as significant as in the previous ones, since there is more vaccinated population .

“We have incorporated into our forecast that in December and next January there could be an increase in infections, but this would not generate important restrictions in economic activity because the vaccination It has advanced ”, he deepened.

“Even in Mexico City and almost all adults, those over 18 years of age, could have access to a vaccine, as long as there are no variables that escape the effectiveness of the vaccines, we do not see a significant restriction in the economy, “he added.

The chief economist of the Financial Group Go for More He recognized that a behavior that could perhaps arise is that in the face of an increase in infections, a part of the population could isolate itself.

“If we believe that in the face of the increase in infections there could be some moderations in social mobility, self-imposed (…) We must take into account that infections today have remained relatively low, we are not in a situation like Germany, United Kingdom”, He detailed.

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