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Sunday, January 16

338 Canada: O’Toole’s numbers return to pre-election levels

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SELECT wp_posts.*, MATCH (wp_posts.post_title,wp_posts.post_content) AGAINST ('338 Canada: O\'Toole\'s numbers return pre-election levels Philippe J. Fournier: A new Abacus poll shows Conservative leader\'s approval numbers have plummeted since election, pointing future challenges party. first session 44th Parliament (finally) began last week, almost two months after general elections September. While voting intentions have remained (unsurprisingly) generally stable during time, long lull parliamentary hostilities does not appear have benefited Conservative leader Erin O\'Toole, whose party has been embroiled disputes. internal since their electoral defeat. Namely, a new survey published Abacus facts shows conservative leader\'s impressions&hellip;') as score FROM wp_posts WHERE 1=1 AND ( wp_posts.post_date <= '2022-01-16 01:16:23' ) AND wp_posts.ID NOT IN (619959) AND wp_posts.post_type IN ('post', 'page') AND ((wp_posts.post_status = 'publish' OR wp_posts.post_status = 'inherit')) AND MATCH (wp_posts.post_title,wp_posts.post_content) AGAINST ('338 Canada: O\'Toole\'s numbers return pre-election levels Philippe J. Fournier: A new Abacus poll shows Conservative leader\'s approval numbers have plummeted since election, pointing future challenges party. first session 44th Parliament (finally) began last week, almost two months after general elections September. While voting intentions have remained (unsurprisingly) generally stable during time, long lull parliamentary hostilities does not appear have benefited Conservative leader Erin O\'Toole, whose party has been embroiled disputes. internal since their electoral defeat. Namely, a new survey published Abacus facts shows conservative leader\'s impressions&hellip;') ORDER BY score DESC LIMIT 0, 6

Philippe J. Fournier: A new Abacus poll shows that the Conservative leader’s approval numbers have plummeted since the election, pointing to future challenges for the party.

The first session of the 44th Parliament (finally) began last week, almost two months after the general elections in September. While voting intentions have remained (unsurprisingly) generally stable during that time, this long lull in parliamentary hostilities does not appear to have benefited Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, whose party has been embroiled in disputes. internal since their electoral defeat. Namely, a new survey published by Abacus facts It shows that the conservative leader’s impressions have returned to their pre-election levels.

To the question: “Do you have a positive or negative impression of the following federal party leaders?” O’Toole’s favorable responses plummeted: 23% positive against 45% negative, for a net score of -22, the worst score. among the main leaders of federal parties.

At the start of the federal campaign in August, Abacus had measured O’Toole’s impression with a similar net score of -21. However, as the campaign progressed, the CCP leader’s perception improved substantially, until it reached a score of -10 in mid-September. In hindsight, his improved personal numbers were a leading indicator of growing support for his party, which would peak in early September only to recede after the leaders’ debates.

Here are the numbers for the three main leaders of the party:



While the Prime Minister’s approval rating has eroded slightly since the election, Abacus did not measure any dramatic change. With 40% positive impressions and 41% negative impressions, Justin Trudeau enters this new Parliament with a net score of -1 in the Abacus poll, compared to +5 at the end of the campaign.

Only NDP leader Jagmeet Singh performs well, with 42% positive and 23% negative, a net score of +19. However, these numbers remain similar to those measured at the end of the campaign last September, and the challenge for Singh in this 44th Parliament will be to find a way to turn this positive perception into real support at the polls, something he failed to achieve. . in the 2019 and 2021 elections. Federal leaders who take a third kick in the can are few and far between, but it appears Singh is firmly in the chair as the leader of the NDP, at least in the short to medium term.

Let’s take a look at the approval ratings of these leaders based on the voting intentions of the respondents. Not surprisingly, the Prime Minister’s best numbers come from liberal voters. 87% of this group of voters have a positive impression of Justin Trudeau. Among the voters of the other parties, a quarter of the voters of the Bloc Québécois and the NDP say they have a good impression of Justin Trudeau, but a majority of Bloc Québécois (61%), Green (64%), Conservative (78% )) and People’s Party voters (84%) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister.



In the case of Jagmeet Singh, he registers high support among his party’s voters (in similar proportions to Trudeau among Liberals), with 86 percent positive impressions. Among the sympathizers of other parties, there is a significant division: on the one hand, there are the Liberals and the Greens, among whom Singh records net scores of +24 and +18 respectively; on the other hand, the NDP leader is seen mostly negatively by conservative (-16), bloc (-30) and PPC (-33) voters.



What about conservative leader Erin O’Toole? Among his party’s supporters, 70 percent still have a positive impression of him, a slightly lower proportion than Trudeau and Singh among their respective constituencies, but higher than Abacus Data had measured last spring ( 62 percent). However, we note that the Conservative leader scores low among voters of other parties: only 8 to 13 percent of voters in the NDP, Bloc, Liberal and Green view O’Toole favorably.



Even among voters for Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada (PPC), O’Toole receives a dismal net score of -33 (21% positive impression and 54% negative impression).

These low levels of appreciation across party lines suggest that the Conservative Party, while winning the popular vote in the last two general elections (by one point over the Liberals), is still hampered by limited potential for growth, including with a leader who is perceived as more centrist than his predecessors. Given that O’Toole must find a way to expand his voter base if he is to have any hope of winning the next election (if his party keeps him in office until then, of course), how should he and his team interpret these? data? ?

Some conservative strategists may believe that trying to bring PPC voters back into the fold would give the Conservative party a chance to return to power (Maxime Bernier’s party received 5 percent of the vote last September). However, this strategy could prove a dead end for O’Toole: Although the sample of PPC voters in this poll is small, the differences between the positive and negative impressions of the Conservative leader are well beyond a reasonable margin of error. . Most PPC voters view O’Toole unfavorably, so if O’Toole woos Maxime Bernier’s voters, this strategy could convince only a small number of them to switch parties, while further distancing themselves. undecided voters, among whom many might be looking. change of government after Trudeau’s decade in power.

We’ll see if O’Toole can improve his numbers now that Canadians can finally see him in action in the House of Commons.



Reference-www.macleans.ca

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