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Sunday, January 16

Battle for Elysee: Macron and the splintered right

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SELECT wp_posts.*, MATCH (wp_posts.post_title,wp_posts.post_content) AGAINST ('Battle Elysee: Macron and splintered right further fragmentation right and thus also its voter potential plays into Macron\'s hands. So far, fault line right had run between right-wing populist Rassemblement National (RN) party Marine Le Pen and conservative Republicans. Zemmour a new element added.Zemmour does not belong any party and competing right-wing populist Le Pen, lost Macron runoff election 2017. Le Pen competes Rassemblement National. times he had overtaken Le Pen polls before he officially a candidate. Most recently, however,&hellip;') as score FROM wp_posts WHERE 1=1 AND ( wp_posts.post_date <= '2022-01-16 10:59:46' ) AND wp_posts.ID NOT IN (618044) AND wp_posts.post_type IN ('post', 'page') AND ((wp_posts.post_status = 'publish' OR wp_posts.post_status = 'inherit')) AND MATCH (wp_posts.post_title,wp_posts.post_content) AGAINST ('Battle Elysee: Macron and splintered right further fragmentation right and thus also its voter potential plays into Macron\'s hands. So far, fault line right had run between right-wing populist Rassemblement National (RN) party Marine Le Pen and conservative Republicans. Zemmour a new element added.Zemmour does not belong any party and competing right-wing populist Le Pen, lost Macron runoff election 2017. Le Pen competes Rassemblement National. times he had overtaken Le Pen polls before he officially a candidate. Most recently, however,&hellip;') ORDER BY score DESC LIMIT 0, 6

This further fragmentation of the right and thus also of its voter potential plays into Macron’s hands. So far, the fault line in the right had run between the right-wing populist Rassemblement National (RN) party of Marine Le Pen and the conservative Republicans. With Zemmour a new element is added.

Zemmour does not belong to any party and is competing with right-wing populist Le Pen, who lost to Macron in the runoff election in 2017. Le Pen competes for the Rassemblement National. At times he had overtaken Le Pen in the polls before he was officially a candidate. Most recently, however, Zemmour’s campaign stalled. In the meantime, at around 15 percent, it is well behind Le Pen, who comes to 19 percent. In the first round of the election, according to political scientists, a Macron victory is considered certain.

Reuters/Bernadette Szabo

Marine Le Pen wants to try again to move into the Elysee Palace against Macron

The left is also fragmented

Macron, who, according to the media, wants to announce his candidacy for a second term in January, is currently clearly ahead in surveys with a support of 25 to 27 percent. A fragmented external rights would therefore have advantages for Macron, because the competitors of the other parties are already considered beaten in the surveys. The Green Yannick Jadot and the socialist Anne Hidalgo are bobbing about in the single digits in the polls.

Mayoress of Paris, Anne Hidalgo

Reuters

The socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo is currently considered beaten

The Parti Socialiste (PS) of Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, has been in a tailspin since Francois Hollande’s presidency from 2012 to 2017, and in the last election the party only achieved six percent – a historically poor result. In addition to the PS, the French left are split up into other parties. For example, the left-wing politician Jean-Luc Melenchon, who is running for the third time for president, has only nine percent support. Here, too, the fragmentation helps Macron.

Who wants to go to the Elysee Palace for the Republicans?

Meanwhile, the conservative Republicans want to announce their candidate on Saturday. Around 140,000 party members have been called on since Wednesday to choose one of the candidates. Former Labor Minister Xavier Bertrand is considered the Republican favorite. In polls, he is just ahead of the President of the Ile-de-France Region, Valerie Pecresse. The EU’s former Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, is also a candidate for the primary election.

Elysee Palast in Paris

Reuters / Ludovic Marin

The Elysee Palace, the official residence of the French President

If, however, once again expect – after the announcement of Zemmour’s candidacy, however, extremely unlikely – Le Pen and Zemmour agree before the first ballot that only one of them will enter the race, things could be tight for Macron.

Runoff election as a great unknown

The first round of voting is scheduled for April 10th. However, should the Republicans bet on a moderate candidate, he or she could also pull votes from Macron and weaken the current president in the first round.

The runoff vote between the top two is scheduled for April 24th. According to the polls, Le Pen could run against Macron in the runoff election, but depending on the choice of Republicans, their candidate is also possible in the runoff election.

Crises in Macron’s tenure

The pro-European Macron won his first candidacy in 2017. Probably also because his fiercest competitor, alongside Le Pen, the conservative Francois Fillon, was considerably weakened shortly before the election by revelations about the alleged sham employment of his wife Penelope at parliamentary expense.

Macron repeatedly had to struggle with political crises during his first term in office. There were the weeks-long, sometimes violent “yellow vests” protests, demonstrations against the pension reform and an affair about a former security guard. Despite his will to turn politics inside out, criticism of the style of government and the system of the French political elite persisted.

Le Pen wants to focus on the election campaign

Le Pen gave up the party chairmanship temporarily in September. Her deputy Jordan Bardella will take over the leadership of the RN for the duration of the presidential election campaign. Le Pen focuses on its core themes: the fight against immigration and crime. In the event of her election she has already announced a referendum on immigration policy and said she would put “French criminals in jail and foreigners on airplanes”.

She also attacks Macron’s CoV policy. She sees it as a “disproportionate violation of the right to freedom,” as she said in September.

French presidential candidate Eric Zemmour

AP/Thomas Coex

Right-wing radical Eric Zemmour is running for the French presidency

Zemmour wants to score with right-wing provocations

Zemmour, still dangerous for Le Pen despite her lead in surveys, has made a name for himself as a journalist, book author and talk show guest with provocative ideas. Its main target are Muslim immigrants. Zemmour has already had around 15 legal proceedings. Almost two weeks ago, the public prosecutor demanded a fine of 10,000 euros for denigrating underage migrants as “thieves, murderers and rapists” in a TV debate.

In October, while visiting a security trade fair, Zemmour pointed an assault rifle at the journalists accompanying him – “just for fun,” as he said with a grin into the cameras. Zemmour represents the myth of the “great exchange”, which is widespread in right-wing extremist circles, according to which the European population is supposedly replaced by Muslim migrants and their descendants. For Zemmour, the headscarf and Dschellaba are “uniforms of an occupying army”, and he wants to forbid foreign first names.

Reference-orf.at

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