Friday, December 3

North American exports expected to grow three times higher than Asia’s in 2022: WTO

The volume of exports from North America would register a year-on-year growth at three times that of Asia in 2022, projected the World Trade Organization (WTO) in a report released this Thursday.

After the external sales of North America fell 8.6% in 2020 and would rise 8.7% in 2021 and 6.9% in 2022.

That same trajectory for the case of Asia would be a rise of 0.3% in 2020, an increase of 14.4% in 2021 and an advance of 2.3% in 2022.

Globally, the large projected growth rate of 10.8% of the merchandise trade in 2021 is mainly related to the magnitude of the fall from the previous year, which bottomed out in the second quarter of 2020.

Year-on-year trade volume growth was 22.0% in the second quarter of 2021 due to a low 2020 base, but should fall to 10.9% in the third quarter and 6.6% in the fourth quarter if the current forecast of the OMC.

Reaching the annual forecast for 2021 will only require quarter-on-quarter growth to an average of 0.8% in the second half of the year, which is equivalent to an annual rate of 3.1 percent.

According to the WTO, trade growth in the first half of 2021 exceeded previous forecasts for several reasons, including increased production and dissemination of Covid-19 vaccines.

As of October 13, nearly 6.6 billion doses had been administered worldwide. This achievement is remarkable, but still insufficient, as many poor countries remain largely unvaccinated.

To date, only 2.5% of people in low-income countries have received even a single dose of the Covid-19 vaccine.

The lack of wider vaccination has contributed to a multi-speed economic recovery, with slower growth in countries and regions with less access to vaccines.

Regarding imports, the WTO projected that they would grow 12.6% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022 in North America, after having fallen 6.1% in 2020.

For their part, in Asia they would rise 10.7% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022, after falling 1.2% in 2020.

For the WTO, semiconductor shortages and shipping delays will likely affect trade in the short term, but the biggest downside risk remains the Covid-19 pandemic.

Considering the volume of trade around the world (imports plus exports), flows fell 5.3% in 2020, while WTO projections indicate that they would grow 10.8% in 2021 and 4.7% in 2022.

On the other hand, despite the relatively low number of trade restrictions on Covid-19 still in force worldwide, its estimated trade coverage was almost double ($ 88.4 billion) than that of trade facilitation measures ($ 48.2 billion).

Many financial support programs implemented by the G20 economies to alleviate the economic and social disruptions caused by Covid-19 are being eliminated or adjusted to take into account the new circumstances and prepare for post-pandemic recovery.

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