Friday, September 24

The latest consensus from the 2021 election is a shrug emoji

Politics Insider for September 15, 2021: Vaccine Policy Surveys; Gerald Butts at the end of the race; a loss to canada

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Marie danielle smith, writing in Maclean’s, punches a hole in the conventional wisdom that developed after the debates, the idea that something happened that moved the numbers.

Most polls show that a small but steady conservative edge has evaporated in the days since, despite the beating Justin trudeau took the stage of the debate for his record of six years as prime minister. But is that really the case? A weekend survey from Innovative Research to Maclean’s it implies debates did not have a clear winner overall, with all the leaders managing to rally their grassroots and all the leaders achieving better impressions on those who saw the debate than on those who simply heard about the debate.

The survey finds that “fear of a conservative government” is lower (36 percent) than in 2019 (41 percent) and offers interesting information on the partisan collapse of vaccine policy.

The poll found that 25 percent of respondents who believe that pandemic restrictions are “too strict” intend to vote for the (PPC). Another 37 percent would vote for the Conservatives. At the other end of the spectrum, among people who think the restrictions are “too flexible,” there is no support for Bernier, but 35 percent favor O’Toole. That conservatives enjoy the support of both groups still difficult for O’Toole as you browse your position on vaccine mandates. But the fact that Bernier is the only comfortable option for people who are against vaccines may be the biggest problem. In 2019, when the PPC was much weaker, the Conservatives lost a handful of bypasses due to the small number of defectors from Bernier’s tribe. The dent could be bigger this time.

Until participation: Also in Maclean’s, Shannon Proudfoot has an interesting interview with Trudeau’s former adviser Gerald butts, who says that the election is so close that it will be decided on the spot, which means that motivation is the key.

My view was that something had to happen to stop the conservative momentum, which had built up over the course of the first few weeks, and it is quite clear from public opinion research that that has happened. The last aggregation I saw is that we are still in a tying game, and by tying game, I mean the difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives is within the margin of error for every poll I have seen, and that means the Campaign focus will quickly turn to engagement.

“He went after my family”: Speaking of motivation, Justin Trudeau on Tuesday defended a protester who referred to his wife in vile terms, Global reports.

Hard interview: Trudeau yelled at the intercessor before a sitting interview with Neetu Garcha from Global, who stood out for her toughness. Earlier in the campaign, Garcha gave O’Toole a good barbecue.

Weaver appears: Former BC Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver appeared with Trudeau in BC on Tuesday, the Vancouver Sun. reports, to say that he supports Trudeau’s climate plan. Polls show that Liberals are on the verge of losing seats in BC, which presumably explains why Trudeau spends so much time there.

O’Toole writes: O’Toole has written a letter to Francois legault pledging money for childcare, Balloon reports. Last week, Legault, who says Quebecers should vote for the Bloc or the Tories, also expressed concern that Conservatives will not abide by Quebec’s $ 6,000 childcare deal with Liberals. million in five years. “In our financial plan, we have set aside money for future deals with the provinces,” O’Toole writes. “It is with these funds that I intend to fulfill my commitment to align my approach to child care with your priorities, such as the Quebec child care program that has been doing well for more than 20 years. “

Going after Trudeau: On the election campaign near Ottawa, O’Toole continued to attack Trudeau, CBC reports, denouncing him for “calling unnecessary elections for 600 million dollars in the middle of a pandemic.”

Incoherent: O’Toole met with the editorial board of the Star on Tuesday. Columnist Heather scoffield writes that the conservative plan is “incoherent.”

O’Toole told the Stars The editorial board said Tuesday that the boost in spending was for low-income families and fragile businesses to “take hold” to enable a solid recovery. That’s great, but the point is that controlling the deficit would come later, and it would follow the same trajectory as the one proposed by the liberals, despite its implication that liberal spending is out of control.

PPC spoiler: There’s more bad news for O’Toole in the Mail, where Tasha Kheiriddin writes that the emergence of By Maxime Bernier The party can bog down the Conservatives on Election Day.

Thanks to a perfect storm of anti-government and anti-vaccine sentiment, Bernier has taken his vanity project to between six and seven percent in surveys, eclipsing the Green Party for fourth place. While the PPC may not elect many MPs, due to the vagaries of our first past in the postal system, their rise may frustrate the Conservatives’ hope of forming a minority government. Research from CBC’s Vote Compass suggests that 59 percent of voters Those who intend to vote for the PPC in this election voted the Conservatives in 2019. By dividing the Conservative votes into districts where small margins matter, the PPC could help elect the Liberals and return Justin Trudeau to office.

At Writing, Eric Grenier have a detailed scan of the PPC vote, it’s worth it.

Two faces of Max: the Balloon has two versions of Bernier’s campaign. John ibbitson write that the PPC deserves representation in the House, suggesting that some voters “resent the growing number of non-European immigrants,” a section that was later clarified to indicate that it is a racist view. Partner Balloon columnist Gary Mason have a harder take, describing Bernier as an embarrassing historical note.

the Stars Alex Boutilier Has some important reports on how far-right groups like “Canada First and the Canadian Nationalist Front are encouraging their thousands of supporters to back Bernier’s PPC.”

Harming Alberta: Alberta Medical Health Director Dr. Deena Hinshaw told a Zoom meeting with doctors Monday that when the province lifted public health restrictions in July, it set the trajectory for the fourth wave, CBC reports.

In May, Premier Jason kenney promised the “best summer ever” for Albertans by announcing the government’s three-part plan to be Canada’s first and most open province by July 1. All restrictions were lifted, including a ban on indoor social gatherings and the general indoor provincial mask. mandate, although the province maintained isolation requirements for confirmed COVID-19 cases and some protective measures in continuous care settings.

Alberta is by far the worst place in Canada for COVID-19 right now.

As of Monday, there were 18,395 active cases in Alberta, the highest nationally. By comparison, Ontario, a province with more than three times the population, has a third the number of active cases. It has put the greatest pressure on Alberta’s health care system to date during the pandemic, with about 800 people being treated in the hospital as of Monday, 200 of them in intensive care units.

Sad news: Canadians learned Tuesday that had lost one of his best comedians, Norm MacDonald.

We leave you with this vintage Little NSFW he did on the Daily Show, which includes a wacky wacko at the expense of Peter MacKay.

– Stephen Maher

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