Wednesday, August 4

An explosive cyclogenesis arrives in Spain in the middle of May: risk of storm this week

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The month of May is leaving a succession of powerful storms in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, advises Francisco Martín, a Meteored expert. Despite circulating on its “normal” routes, one of them could affect us at the end of this week and during the next.

These storms are subjected to drastic deepening processes due to the presence of a very intense polar jet, a vigorous “river” of wind that circulates at an altitude of about 9 kilometers separating the cold (polar) air masses from the temperate (subtropical) ones.

For much of this week, storms will not affect us in their entirety. The anticyclone that has settled in the Iberian Peninsula will cause stable weather with little rainfall until Saturday.

This center of high pressures will also provide a increased temperatures, with maximums above 25 or 30 ºC in areas of the southern half and center of the peninsula.

In fact, it is expected that this rise will be remarkable, up to 8 degrees Celsius more than the previous day, first on Monday in the northern half and on Tuesday in the east of the Peninsula. On Wednesday, the steepest rise in thermometers will be experienced in the southeast.

For example in Madrid will go from 15ºC on Saturday to 22ºC on Tuesday and 24ºC on Wednesday. In Zaragoza they will go from 18ºC on Saturday to 26ºC on Tuesday and Wednesday. In Seville they will have 22ºC on Saturday and will reach 29ºC on Tuesday and even 31ºC on Wednesday. Barcelona, ​​for its part, will have more stable temperatures, which will fluctuate between 18 and 20ºC all these days.

In the middle of the week the environment will be somewhat warmer than normal in most of the Peninsula, except on the shores of the Mediterranean, where the presence of clouds and breezes will leave a cooler environment.

An energetic Atlantic squall

During On Thursday, May 6, a powerful storm will form under the umbrella of the aforementioned intense polar jet.

Predictably, its center will move towards the British Isles, but from there it will extend a very active cold front that will reach the Iberian Peninsula from the west on Sunday, causing a significant decrease in temperatures and fairly general showers. Despite the remoteness, we will remain within its radius of action.

Although the impacts of this storm may be significant, for now, we are waiting for it to be named. Possibly it will be called Mathieu if the national meteorological services of southwestern Europe, including the AEMET, have the power to appoint it.

It will depend on whether they activate orange level warnings by wind And if you don’t get ahead of the British Met Office and its partners, they have a parallel name list.

Explosive cyclogenesis

Returning to the conditions of the future storm, the interaction between the jet and the low pressures could lead to a true explosive cyclogenesis in the middle of May. The minimum pressure could drop up to 24 hPa in 24 hours.

Although the prediction of these deepening processes has many guarantees, their position and intensity may vary from Sunday, May 9, and the following week.

According to Rubén del Campo, spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet), the second half of the week will be marked by the arrival of Atlantic fronts that again produce instability in the northwest and north of the Peninsula.

The highest probability of rainfall is expected in Galicia, but that during the next weekend could also affect the Cantabrian Sea and other points of the extreme north, areas where the winds will blow intense.

Temperatures as of Thursday will drop in the western half and on Friday in the eastern half and will tend to recover throughout the country over the weekend.

Finally, regarding the second half of the week in Canarias Del Campo indicates that cloudy intervals and possible generally weak rainfall will continue in the north of the islands of greater relief.

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