- While many French people are considering getting vaccinated, no one really knows when they can actually do it.
- Two researchers from Lyon have developed a simulator allowing each individual, depending on his age, state of health or even his profession, to discover the date on which he can expect to receive his dose of vaccine.
- Dubbed the “vaccine queue calculator”, this simulator is based on figures from INSEE, data from the High Authority for Health, Public Health France, and figures published daily on the CovidTracker.fr site.
Barely a month after the start of the Covid-19 vaccination campaign in France, most vaccination centers are full. While many French people are considering getting vaccinated, no one really knows when they can actually do it. Two French researchers have developed a simulator allowing each individual, depending on his age, state of health or even his profession, to discover precisely his place in the vaccine queue, and therefore the date on which he can expect to receive his dose of vaccine.
“When France began its vaccination campaign against Covid-19 – planning to reach 1,000,000 vaccinations at the end of January – I asked myself the same question as millions of French people. When can I get vaccinated? I tried to find an answer, and I ended up building myself a tool to calculate my position in the queue, ”explains Salam Mubarak, doctor at the National Institute of Applied Sciences in Lyon (Insa ) from Lyon (Rhône).
Data calculated in real time
With his colleague Maciej Kowalski from the start-up Omni Calculator, Salam Mubarak therefore developed a simulator, inspired by the one created in England by Steven Wooding, an English physicist, who created an algorithm “allowing to determine when the British can vaccinate ”. Baptized ” tail calculator for vaccine “, The simulator developed by the two Lyon researchers is based on figures from INSEE, data from the High Authority for Health, Public Health France, and on figures published daily on the CovidTracker.fr site [et son outil VaccinTracker].
“Using these statistics, and taking into account age, profession, state of health, risk factors, but also the approval rate of the vaccine in the population [le pourcentage de Français qui veulent se faire vacciner] and the duration of the vaccination campaign, our algorithm is able to estimate the date on which each French person could have access to the vaccine. Our calculator provides you with the minimum and maximum number of people in front of you, as well as an estimate of how long you will have to wait before receiving your dose, ”explains Salam Mubarak.
“People want more information, more transparency”
The calculator is available free of charge on the Omni Calculator website. To get a date estimate, it’s very simple. You will just have to indicate your age, specify if you are resident in an nursing home, if you are pregnant, if you work as a health professional, firefighter or as a home help staff, if you have comorbidities, and if you have ever been in high-risk contact with people who are positive for Covid-19.
Thus, for a young man of 25, in good health, and who has not been in contact with infected people, the simulator indicated this Sunday, January 24 that there were “between 20,804,000 and 30,604,000 people »In front of him in the queue, that is to say a vaccination which could not intervene before November 12, 2021. Posted online a week ago, this calculator does not “claim to be 100% accurate”, and does not present itself as an official source, or medical support, specifies Salam Mubarak. “It’s purely informative, people now want more information, more transparency.”