Friday, September 24

Countdown to the 2020 US election: Trump draws new hope from current polls

  • fromLukas Rogalla

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  • Christian Stör

    Christian Stör

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The 2020 US election will be decided in a few days. Joe Biden has the lead in the polls. A recent survey gives new hope to Donald Trump’s camp.

  • Donald Trump* gives itself despite bad poll results before the Presidential election * confident of victory.
  • The high turnout is a good sign for the democratic challenger Joe Biden*.
  • News about the 2020 election: All the news and background information about the elections in the USA*.

+++ 6:39 pm: Scoops US-Präsident Donald Trump before the upcoming US election 2020 new Hope? According to a survey by “Des Moines Register/Selzer“Trump is ahead of challenger Joe Biden in Iowa by a margin of 48 percent to 41 percent. The survey thus steers in a completely different direction than many other surveys. Should it vote, Trump would be in a much better position in the election than initially thought. Translated means: The Trump versus Biden race would be a lot closer.

According to “CNN” it is actually possible that Trump wins in Iowa by such a large margin. “CNN“Also on the history of the Selzer surveys. Already with the US election 2016 a Selzer poll had forecast Trump’s lead in Iowa in advance with seven points. Ultimately, Trump won with nine points.

US election 2020: Donald Trump or Joe Biden – What the polls say

Update from Sunday, November 1st, 2020, 4:25 p.m .: Although lies Joe Biden in the polls just before the US election in front Donald Trump, the incumbent should not be written off yet. Especially Pennsylvania (20 voters) is highly competitive. The state in the northeast shows that a slight trend currently means nothing. After Trump was still ahead on October 20, Joe Biden overtook him after both candidates campaigned last week. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania is again undecided. In Michigan and Wisconsin, with a total of 26 voters, Joe Biden is currently ahead. In 2016, the two states in the north of the USA still to Donald Trump. Around 51 percent would in the three states, according to polls for Biden vote, 44 to 45 percent for Trump.

183 electors (270 needed to win) from 14 states apply Joe Biden as safe. Nine other states with 95 voters tend to be slightly or strongly democratic. Has eleven states with 72 voters Donald Trump sure, nine with 53 voters tend to be Republican. No trend can be identified in seven countries. The race for 135 voters remains open.

US election: Donald Trump against Joe Biden also in North Carolina a close race

Update from Friday, October 30th, 2020, 12.20 p.m .: Among the contested states involved in the US presidential election in the USA play a crucial role, too North Carolina. The state on the east coast has 15 voters to assign. In the US election in 2016 Donald Trump prevail there by a good three percentage points. Polls now predict a very close race, with a tiny margin for Joe Biden.

Joe Biden or Donald Trump again? Americans elect their president.

© Gene J. Puskar/AP/dpa/picture alliance + Andrew Harnik/AP/dpa/picture alliance

A joint survey by the “New York Times” and Siena College also sees Joe Biden just ahead, with 48 to 45 percent. It is also noteworthy here that 64 percent of the likely voters stated that they had already cast their ballot papers.

The resurgence of the corona crisis plays a major role in North Carolina Donald Trump don’t want to know anything else. Trump pointed in at a rally North Carolina most recently the threat from the coronavirus as exaggerated. At that time he identified the media as the culprit: “Covid, Covid, Covid is the unified song of the boring fake media. They won’t talk about anything else until November 4th, when the election (hopefully!) Is over. Then they talk about how low the death rate is, how many empty hospital rooms there are and how many young people are being tested. ”

US election 2020: Donald Trump hopes for a turnaround shortly before the election

Washington – Donald Trump is confident of victory. Just a few days before the Presidential election on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, Trump is firmly convinced of his triumph. “The big red wave is coming,” he recently announced again on Twitter – and by that he meant a landslide success for the Republicans, who, unlike the Democrats (blue), are associated with the color red.

A bold assessment given the fact that Donald Trump in all Survey well behind its democratic challenger Joe Biden behind. But above all the memory of the US election in 2016, when Hillary Clinton Generally considered a big favorite, Trump is hoping to turn the tables again this time.

For him, the publicly known surveys are nothing but fake Surveythat have no value. The parties also collect internal data that are inaccessible – but usually shaped accordingly and unilaterally not very meaningful are.

US Election 2020: Polls in the Swing States

The possibility that Donald Trump will turn the tables cannot of course be ruled out, but it does not seem very realistic at the moment. After all, has Joe Biden in the publicly known Survey a much more stable and larger lead over Trump than was the case with Hillary Clinton four years ago.

Donald Trump is confident of victory.

© dpa/Evan Vucci

Because of the complex electoral system, in which the particularly contested “swing states” or “battleground states” matter, the surveys usually have only limited informative value. However, the polls * in the states that are likely to make the elections point to Joe Biden Bidens having a lead. In these key states, Biden does significantly better than Clinton in the 2016 US election.

In addition, it is just as possible that the pendulum swings in the other direction again this time. Because with the 2012 election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney the polling institutes were also wrong – only they had underestimated the strength of the Democrats * at the time.

StateDonald TrumpJoe Biden
Arizona (11 votes in EC)45,7 %48,5 %
Florida (29)46,5 %48,7 %
Georgia (16)46,6 %48,3 %
Iowa (6)46,7 %47,0 %
Michigan (16)42,6 %50,7 %
Minnesota (10)42,0 %50,2 %
Nevada (6)43,5 %49,6 %
New Hampshire (4)42,5 %53,9 %
North Carolina (15)46,9 %49,0 %
Ohio (18)46,6 %46,5 %
Pennsylvania (20)45,0 %50,1 %
Texas (38)48,1 %46,8 %
Wisconsin (10)43,2 %51,8 %
(As of October 28, 2020, source: FiveThirtyEight)

2020 US election: high voter turnout speaks more for Joe Biden than Donald Trump

But there is another factor that speaks against it Donald Trump. A few days before US election 2020 more than 76 million people in the US have already cast their votes, according to data from the US Elections Project by political scientist Michael McDonald of the University of Florida. That corresponds to more than half (55.5 percent) of all votes cast in the 2016 US election *. At that time around 137 million people took part in the election. As a rule, the higher the turnout, the more accurate they are Survey.

The turnout in the state is particularly noticeable Texas, which has been firmly in the hands of the Republicans * since 1980. More than eight million votes have already been cast there, which corresponds to 91 percent of the total number from 2016. In the equally important US states Florida and North Carolina participation is also high.

In general, it can be assumed that the early voters support a greater proportion Joe Biden be right. According to data from the US Elections Project, significantly more registered Democrats appear to have voted than Republicans so far. Registering with a party does not necessarily say anything about voting behavior. But also in the current one Survey these voices are already flowing in. (Christian Stör)

Rubriklistenbild: © Gene J. Puskar/AP/dpa/picture alliance + Andrew Harnik/AP/dpa/picture alliance

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