The conclusion is clear. The health situation is “Difficult, even critical”, estimated Monday, October 26 Jean-François Delfraissy, president of the scientific council, estimating that it would be necessary at least to tighten and extend the curfew in the face of a second epidemic wave ” brutal “.
“We had expected that there would be this second wave, but we ourselves are surprised by the brutality of what has been happening for ten days”, declared Professor Delfraissy on RTL. “The second wave is probably going to be stronger than the first”, he feared, noting that “Many of our fellow citizens have not yet realized what awaits us”.
He estimated that the actual number of cases should be “Around 100,000 per day”, while confirmed cases have reached unprecedented figures in recent days, surpassing the 50,000 mark in twenty-four hours on Sunday for the first time since the start of large-scale tests.
“Massive curfew” or “more or less harsh confinement”
According to him, there is “Two hypotheses” to try to curb this second wave. The first is to“Move towards a more massive curfew, both in its schedules, in its scope at the national level, and which can also be implemented on weekends”. After “Ten to fifteen days (…), we could look at the curve of new contaminations (…), and if we are not in the right direction, go towards containment ”.
The second hypothesis is to“Go directly towards confinement, less harsh than that of March, which allows both work, which obviously would increase in terms of teleworking, which would probably make it possible to maintain a school activity and which would also allow a certain number of economic activities, which could be of shorter duration and which would be followed by very specific deconfinement conditions, since we would deconfin by going through a curfew ”.
“The faster we take action, the more [elles] will have some form of efficiency ”, he insisted, while stressing that the scientific council, responsible for informing the choices of the executive, “Does not advocate anything”. “We are putting on the table the two major strategies that are possible”, he noted, adding that it is about “Eminently political decisions”.
“This wave, it is invading Europe (…), it will last several weeks, even one or two months ”, he continued, while refusing to comment on the situation during the holiday season: “We’ll see for the Christmas holidays. “
“We no longer have a choice”
“The virus is so present among us that, there, I think that today we no longer have a choice, it would be necessary to re-define”, also said Eric Caumes, head of the infectious disease department of the Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital, on Franceinfo.
“We lost control of the epidemic a few weeks ago, says the doctor. The Prime Minister recognized it, the Minister of Health too ”. If the situation continues to worsen for a few days, “It’s tenable. If they believe that it will worsen for two weeks, it is not understandable, not sustainable and, in this case, the consequences will have to be drawn as quickly as possible ”. Sees him in curfew “A risky bet”. “From an epidemiological point of view, this is not a method whose effectiveness we know. ” We will have to wait another ten to fifteen days to find out, according to him.
“The time is no longer for half measures. “ In a press release published this Friday, the Regional Union of Liberal Health Professionals (UPRS) of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes believes for its part that “Half-measures of the current curfew are reminiscent of the funny war of 1939-1940”. She calls, in the coming hours, to impose the curfew from 7 p.m. and to establish a confinement on weekends, the last bulwark before a general confinement of the population. “We are in a situation of war”, argues with France Inter Doctor Pierre-Jean Ternamian, radiologist in Lyon and president of URPS. “With more than 40,000 new cases per day, if we take a mortality rate of 0.5%, that means that after three weeks we will have 200 deaths per day. “
URPS Médecins Aura: press release “The effort requested from caregivers must be accompanied by an effort to… https://t.co/Ek1zrTzLbl
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