Friday, October 30

Ayuso and Vox grow at the expense of Cs but Aguado will continue to have the key to the Community of Madrid

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Isabel Diaz Ayuso she would continue to be president of the Community of Madrid if new elections were held today, although for this she would need the support of Vox Y Citizens. This is clear from the survey carried out by Sociométrica for EL ESPAÑOL.

The barometer that analyzes the current political landscape shows that 26.8% of Madrilenians want the current president to repeat in office. In this way, the Popular Party would become the first political force, closely followed by the PSOE by Ángel Gabilondo (25,9%).

An advantage that, although minimal, demonstrates the support for of the citizens of the region to Ayuso in the midst of his particular political battle against the Government of Spain. A struggle that has become stark after the Minister of Health, Salvador Illa, imposed the state of alarm in the Community of Madrid.

Faced with such a tight result, the key to governance would be in the hands of Ignacio Aguado (Cs), who would have to decide if the future government of the Community of Madrid is of the center-right or of the left.

Aguado’s decision currently seems far from settled. And it is that the vice president of the current Executive has been listening to siren songs from the left for some time. The opposition leader in the Madrid Assembly, the socialist Ángel Gabilondo, has probed the liberal leader with the option of raising a motion of censure.

He has dedicated himself to avoiding the question arguing that “this is not the time for partisanship or chair games.” This elusive response, together with his criticism from within to some of Ayuso’s decisions, make the popular ones suspicious of Aguado’s intentions, who yesterday asked “a stop in Madrid for up to 21 days” – against the speech of his government partners- .

On the other hand, the motion of censure that the left insistently raises confirms that the offensive suffered by the president goes beyond her management of the coronavirus pandemic. However, this offensive is having a boomerang effect that drives the president of the Community of Madrid.

Support for Ayuso

The advantage that the Sociometric survey carried out for EL ESPAÑOL gives Isabel Díaz Ayuso is paradigmatic in the midst of the intense political battle waged between the Government of Spain and the Community of Madrid on account of the coronavirus epidemic.

The noise of it has not only not worn Ayuso, but it has elevated her to the Popular Party is once again the most voted party in the Community. Something that had not happened since the regional elections of 2015, when the popular candidate was Cristina Cifuentes placeholder image.

In total, the center right would be reinforced and add the 53,9% of the supports. A figure that would materialize in 72 deputies compared to the 60 that the left would add (46,1%) -four less than in the municipal elections of 2019-.

So things, Vox would grow exponentially and add 20 deputies, eight more than a year and a half ago. In this way, the hard-right party would have a parliamentary force close to the one that the liberal party currently holds.

On the other hand, the left would suffer. Both the PSOE and Más Madrid would lose two seats in the Assembly, while Unidos Podemos would remain, but with a minimal force that would materialize in 7 deputies.

Vote transfer

How is it explained that Díaz Ayuso surpassed the PSOE as the first force in the Community of Madrid? The vote transfer matrix indicates that there is a flight of liberal voters towards the Popular Party, as well as a demobilization of the left.

First, 20.3% of those who opted for Citizens in 2019 would currently vote for Isabel Díaz Ayuso. In addition, 8.3% would go to Más Madrid, 6.8% to Vox and only 6% to the PSOE. No liberal voter would fall back to Podemos.

Ciudadanos would also be the party that would lose the most voters to abstention (16.7%). Definitely, only 42.1% of those who voted for Ignacio Aguado in the last elections would vote for him again today. A real sangria.


Another factor that would drive the center-right is the demobilization of the left vote. Nothing more and nothing less than 15.2% of the electorate of Más Madrid would abstain before new elections. This figure is 12.5% ​​among those related to the PSOE and 10.5% of the supporters of Podemos.

Lastly, in terms of loyalty, Vox voters are the most loyal to their party. And is that the 88,5% of those who voted for the candidate Rocío Monasterio in May 2019, would do so again today.

The popular are the most loyal behind those of Vox, a party to which 10.5% of those who made Díaz Ayuso president with their votes would go. And it is that only Rocío Monasterio would steal considerable support from the president of the Community of Madrid, who would hardly accuse a transfer to Ciudadanos (3.9%).


2,103 surveys have been completed throughout Spain, of which 1,310 in the Community of Madrid, through SocioMétrica’s own online panel (n = 6,900), managed through the Gandia Integra platform (c), between the 15th and the October the 17th. The resulting subsample is weighted for the total national census by sex, age, municipal size, rural / urban habitat, and employment status, and reweighting by vote recall in the 10-N elections. Since it is a non-probability sampling, there is no sampling error, but convergence by interaction for the national total, which is 97% according to the algorithm implemented in Barbwin de Tesi (c). Sociométrica is a partner of Insights + Analytics Spain, a business branch, a Data Science association that integrates Aneimo and Aedemo.

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